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EUR/USD Poised For Another Close Below 1.3800- Weekly Low in Focus

EUR/USD Poised For Another Close Below 1.3800- Weekly Low in Focus

2014-04-02 18:15:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Eyes Former Support Following Bullish Inside-Day

- EUR/USD Consolidates Ahead of ECB Following Failed Close Above 1.3800

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10542.89

10550.19

10526.65

0.08

66.19%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex-EURUSD-Poised-For-Another-Close-Below-1.3800--Weekly-Low-in-Focus_body_Picture_3.png, EUR/USD Poised For Another Close Below 1.3800- Weekly Low in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Eyes Former Support/Trendline Resistance Following Bullish Inside-Day
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (MAR 28)

11:00

--

-1.2%

ADP Employment Change (MAR)

12:15

195K

191K

ISM New York (MAR)

13:45

--

52.0

Factory Orders (FEB)

14:00

1.2%

1.6%

Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:30

Fed's James Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy

20:00

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) may continue to consolidate ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as price stubbornly holds above the 10,500 region.

Indeed, expectations for a 200K rise in U.S. employment may keep the dollar afloat over the near-term, but the greenback remains at risk of carving lower highs & lower lows as long as price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the downward trend from earlier this year.

With that said, we’ll continue to watch the monthly opening range as the greenback comes up against trendline support, but the USDOLLAR may ultimately make a more meaningful run at the 10,470 region should the NFP report give the Federal Reserve greater scope to retain its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time.

Read More:

Price & Time: Risk On?

EUR Pairs Vulnerable After Losing ST Trends Pre-ECB

Forex-EURUSD-Poised-For-Another-Close-Below-1.3800--Weekly-Low-in-Focus_body_ScreenShot021.png, EUR/USD Poised For Another Close Below 1.3800- Weekly Low in Focus

EURUSD Daily

Forex-EURUSD-Poised-For-Another-Close-Below-1.3800--Weekly-Low-in-Focus_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/USD Poised For Another Close Below 1.3800- Weekly Low in Focus
  • Watching Weekly Low (1.3720) After Failing to Close Above 1.3800
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3600 Pivot to 1.3620 (23.6 retracement)

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The greenback continued to strengthened against three of the four components, driven by a 0.20 percent decline in the Euro, and the single currency may face a further decline over the next 24-hours of trading should the European Central Bank (ECB) highlight a more dovish tone for monetary policy.

After failing to close above the 1.3800 handle, the EURUSD remains at risk of seeing a decline into 1.3715-20 as the near-term correction remains in play, and the ECB interest rate decision may set the tone for the remainder of the month as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

In turn, the press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi may turn out to be the main event as the central bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold, and we would need to see the EURUSD break below the 1.3500 handle to adopt a bearish outlook for the pair.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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