News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • I don't think you could make a chart more technically provocative for me than what the $SPY S&P 500 ETF is offering up. That said, doesn't have to break and follow through has been notoriously scarce on the downside
  • #Nasdaq Tanks on Rising U.S. Yields, ARKK Appears to Confirm a Double Top Pattern #trading $ARKK $NDX
  • #Nasdaq Tanks on Rising U.S. Yields, ARKK Appears to Confirm Double Top Patter #trading $ARKK $NDX
  • I'm all for the diversify, but we are missing some steps between A and Z here...
  • Seeing articles show up in my search results that are obvious plants from traditional investment firms trying to get the new generation to open the traditional and passive account types they operate
  • The options market can be an excellent place to express trading ideas, as it presents numerous ways to structure trades with various risk profiles. Learn to trade the Options market with DailyFX. Download your free guide here!
  • On this week's Macro Setup @HathornSabin discusses with @GuyAdami & @RiskReversal the September stock swoon, rate rampage, and dollar dominance. Check it out!
  • Fed's Bostic: - Any decision on a central bank digital currency is a long way off - Taper is warranted if current trends continue
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Bostic Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min)
  • Canadian #Dollar Outlook: $USDCAD Snaps Five-Days Down- Reversal Risk -
EUR/USD Risks Larger Decline on Failure to Close Above 1.3800

EUR/USD Risks Larger Decline on Failure to Close Above 1.3800

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Risks Inside Day (Harami)- April Opening Range in Focus

- EUR/USD Continues to Test 1.3800 Ahead of ECB Meeting





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







Forex-EURUSD-Risks-Larger-Decline-on-Failure-to-Close-Above-1.3800_body_Picture_3.png, EUR/USD Risks Larger Decline on Failure to Close Above 1.3800

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • May Post Bullish Inside-Day, But Bearish Price & RSI Continues to Favor Downside
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot





Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAR F)




ISM Manufacturing (MAR)




ISM Prices Paid (MAR)




Construction Spending (MoM) (FEB)




IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR)




Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) holds with the previous day’s range amid the mixed batch of data coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback may continue to consolidate ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report due out later this week as the region is expected to add another 200K jobs in March.

Indeed, a pickup in U.S. job growth may instill a bullish outlook for the greenback as it raises the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but a dismal employment print would certainly raise the risk of seeing a further decline in the reserve currency as Chair Janet Yellen adopts a more dovish tone for monetary policy.

With that said, we will watch the monthly opening range as the dollar retains the bearish trend from earlier this year, and the greenback remains at risk of carving a lower low as the central bank remains reluctant to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

Read More:

Can USDJPY Finally Trade Higher? 3 Critical Factors we’re Watching

April Forex Seasonality Favors US Dollar Weakness - Against Whom?

Forex-EURUSD-Risks-Larger-Decline-on-Failure-to-Close-Above-1.3800_body_ScreenShot015.png, EUR/USD Risks Larger Decline on Failure to Close Above 1.3800


Forex-EURUSD-Risks-Larger-Decline-on-Failure-to-Close-Above-1.3800_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/USD Risks Larger Decline on Failure to Close Above 1.3800
  • Failure to Close Above 1.3800 Highlights Risk of Larger Correction
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3600 Pivot to 1.3620 (23.6 retracement)

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current Euro Trade Setups

The greenback strengthened against three of the four components, led by a 0.28 percent decline in the Japanese Yen, while the Euro bucked the trend, with the EUR/USD making another run at the 1.3800 handle.

The EUR/USD may stay afloat going into the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting as the Governing Council is widely expected to retain its current policy in April, but the single currency may face a larger correction in the days ahead should President Mario Draghi lay the foundation for a further expansion in its easing cycle.

As a result, a more dovish ECB policy statement may generate a move back into the 1.3600 region, but a break below 1.3500 handle would lead us to adopt a more bearish outlook for the single currency as it would negate the series of higher highs & higher lows in the exchange rate.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.