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AUD/USD Limited by Former Support Ahead of RBA- Fresh High on Tap?

AUD/USD Limited by Former Support Ahead of RBA- Fresh High on Tap?

2014-03-31 16:50:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Struggles as Fed Chair Janet Yellen Preserves Dovish Tone

- AUD/USD Retains Bullish Trend Ahead of RBA- Policy Statement in Focus

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10513.83

10541.33

10506.78

-0.10

89.40%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex-AUDUSD-Limited-by-Former-Support-Ahead-of-RBA--Fresh-High-on-Tap_body_Picture_3.png, AUD/USD Limited by Former Support Ahead of RBA- Fresh High on Tap?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Still Searching for Lower Low after Posting Lower High at 10,600
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NAPM-Milwaukee (MAR)

13:00

51.00

56.03

Chicago Purchasing Manager (MAR)

13:45

59.8

55.9

Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks on U.S. Economy

13:55

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAR)

14:30

3.0

4.9

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) continued to show a limited reaction to the fundamental data prints coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback remains at risk of facing a further decline over the near-term as it continues to search for support.

Indeed, Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounded a bit more dovish going into April and said that the economy needs extraordinary support for ‘some time’ amid the underlying slack in private sector activity, and the downward trend in price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may continue to take shape in the month ahead as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains in no rush to move away from its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).

In turn, our game plan remains unchanged as we look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the dollar, and we will keep a close eye on the 10,470 pivot as the greenback continues to carve a series of lower highs paired with lower lows.

Read More:

Canadian Dollar Higher on GDP Beat

Eurozone Inflation Drops to the Lowest Level Since 2009, Euro Bulls Don’t Mind

Forex-AUDUSD-Limited-by-Former-Support-Ahead-of-RBA--Fresh-High-on-Tap_body_ScreenShot009.png, AUD/USD Limited by Former Support Ahead of RBA- Fresh High on Tap?

AUDUSD Daily

Forex-AUDUSD-Limited-by-Former-Support-Ahead-of-RBA--Fresh-High-on-Tap_body_Picture_1.png, AUD/USD Limited by Former Support Ahead of RBA- Fresh High on Tap?
  • Break Above Former Support Exposes 0.9330-40
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9250 (23.6 retracement) to 0.9290 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 0.8980 (38.2 expansion) to 0.8990 Pivot

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current Australian Dollar Trade Setups

Three of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.30 percent rally in the Australian dollar, and the AUD/USD may mark fresh highs going into April as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) turns increasingly upbeat towards the $1T economy.

Fresh commentary coming out of the RBA may prop up the higher-yielding currency as Governor Glenn Stevens continues to talk down bets for a rate cut, and the AUDUSD may finally make a move above former support (0.9290) should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for growth and inflation.

However, the AUD/USD may come under pressure should Governor Stevens toughen the verbal intervention on the aussie, and the pair remains at risk for a near-term correction as the RSI continues to consolidate below the 70 region.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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