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GBP/USD Carves Higher Low in March- Higher High on Horizon

GBP/USD Carves Higher Low in March- Higher High on Horizon

2014-03-27 16:15:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Retains Bearish Structure Despite Upward Revision in 4Q U.S. GDP

- British Pound Eyes Higher High Ahead of BoE Amid Stronger U.K. Recovery

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10516.39

10524.93

10498.91

-0.02

67.91%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex-GBPUSD-Carves-Higher-Low-in-March--Higher-High-on-Horizon_body_Picture_3.png, GBP/USD Carves Higher Low in March- Higher High on Horizon

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Outlook Remains Bearish Following Lower High; At Risk for Lower Low
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed's Sandra Pianalto Speaks on U.S. Economy

12:30

Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q T)

12:30

2.7%

2.6%

Personal Consumption (4Q T)

12:30

2.7%

3.3%

Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q T)

12:30

1.6%

1.6%

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q T)

12:30

1.3%

1.3%

Initial Jobless Claims (MAR 22)

12:30

323K

311K

Continuing Claims (MAR 14)

12:30

2882K

2823K

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

14:00

0.2%

-0.8%

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB)

14:00

-9.0%

-10.2%

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (MAR)

15:00

5

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) showed a limited reaction to the upward revision in 4Q U.S. GDP, and the greenback remains at risk of facing a further decline going into April amid the bearish trend in price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

In light of recent price action, the dollar remains at risk for a lower low after carving a lower high on March 20 (10,600), and the descending channel may continue to take shape next month as market participants mull the outlook for monetary policy.

It seems as though the bearish sentiment surrounding the greenback will continue to take shape unless we see a material shift in the Fed’s policy outlook, and we will continue to watch the 10,470 pivot as the USDOLLAR searches for support.

Read More:

Price & Time: In Search of a Big USD Low

US Dollar Poised to Hit Fresh Peaks as our Data Calls the Turn

Forex-GBPUSD-Carves-Higher-Low-in-March--Higher-High-on-Horizon_body_ScreenShot003.png, GBP/USD Carves Higher Low in March- Higher High on Horizon

GBPUSD Daily

Forex-GBPUSD-Carves-Higher-Low-in-March--Higher-High-on-Horizon_body_Picture_1.png, GBP/USD Carves Higher Low in March- Higher High on Horizon
  • Carves Higher Low in March; Bullish RSI Break Favors Higher High
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6850-60 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.6400 (61.8 expansion) to 1.6430 (23.6 expansion)

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current British Pound Trade Setups

Two of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.30 percent rally in the AUD/USD, while the GBPUSD looks poised for fresh highs as the stronger recovery in the U.K. raises the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Indeed the bullish break in the RSI should continue to generate higher highs & higher lows in the GBPUSD, and we will watch the topside targets ahead of the BoE meeting on April 10 as the central bank continues to prepare U.K. households for an imminent rise in the benchmark interest rate.

In turn, we will look for opportunities to ‘buy dips’ in the GBPUSD, and we will maintain a bullish outlook for the British Pound as a growing number of BoE officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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