We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • US 2-Year Notes Draw 1.594% Primary Dealers Awarded: 31.2% Indirect Bidders Awarded: 54.8% Direct Bidders Awarded: 14.0% B/C Ratio: 2.70 $TNX
  • Trump Advisor Kudlow says unresolved phase 1 trade issues could spill over into phase 2 #tradewar $DXY
  • US Two-Year Notes Draw 1.594% Primary Dealers Accepted: 31.2% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 58.4% Direct Bidders Accepted: 14.0% B/C Ratio: 2.70
  • Trump Advisor Kudlow says USMCA trade deal could pass the House and Senate this fall $SPX $DXY
  • LIVE NOW: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • #Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Tests 1.30– #Cable Break or Bend - $GBPUSD - https://t.co/mPplq2YjAt https://t.co/5Eee2QqB05
  • starting now -> https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/w2M2LwnmLN
  • Poll: Is this technical move by the broad equity measure, S&P 500, emerging markets and other risk assets today the beginning of a genuine 'risk on' swell?
  • LIVE IN 5 MINUTES: Join @JStanleyFX as he runs through price action set-ups for the FX and CFDs market. https://www.dailyfx.com/registerToSeminar?webinar=1338844901231735299&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The $ACWI all world equities index has eased up to its highest level in since Feb 1, 2018... https://t.co/v2AHy52gUE
Euro Risks Large Correction on Dovish ECB- Remains Bullish Above 1.35

Euro Risks Large Correction on Dovish ECB- Remains Bullish Above 1.35

2014-03-25 16:20:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Struggles Despite Upbeat Consumer Confidence Report

- EURUSD Weighed by Dovish ECB Rhetoric; Watching for Higher Low

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10558.33

10563.03

10539.91

0.09

60.98%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex-Euro-Risks-Large-Correction-on-Dovish-ECB--Remains-Bullish-Above-1.35_body_Picture_3.png, Euro Risks Large Correction on Dovish ECB- Remains Bullish Above 1.35

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Outlook Remains Bearish Following Lower High; At Risk for Lower Low
  • Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

House Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

13:00

0.60%

0.5%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

13:00

0.60%

0.85%

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JAN)

13:00

13.34%

13.24%

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JAN)

13:00

165.73

165.50

Consumer Confidence (MAR)

14:00

78.5

82.3

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAR)

14:00

4

-7

New Home Sales (FEB)

14:00

445K

440K

New Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)

14:00

-4.9%

-3.3%

Fed's Dennis Lockhart Speaks on U.S. Economy

20:00

Fed's Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

23:00

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to hold its ground despite the unexpected uptick in U.S Consumer Confidence, and the bearish trend may continue to take shape over the near-term as the greenback carves a lower high in March.

Despite expectations of seeing a more hawkish Fed in the coming months, the dollar may continue to carve lower highs & lower lows until the central bank halts its asset-purchase program later this year, and the greenback remains at risk of giving back the rebound from back in October (10,354) as the Chair Janet Yellen looks to carry the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) into 2015.

With that said, we will continue to look of opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the greenback as it remains capped by 10,600-15 region, and the reserve currency may continue to work its way towards the 10,470 handle as it continues to search for support.

Forex-Euro-Risks-Large-Correction-on-Dovish-ECB--Remains-Bullish-Above-1.35_body_ScreenShot262.png, Euro Risks Large Correction on Dovish ECB- Remains Bullish Above 1.35

EURUSD Daily

Forex-Euro-Risks-Large-Correction-on-Dovish-ECB--Remains-Bullish-Above-1.35_body_Picture_1.png, Euro Risks Large Correction on Dovish ECB- Remains Bullish Above 1.35
  • Remains at Risk for Larger Correction After Marking Higher High in March
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3600 Pivot to 1.3620 (23.6 retracement)

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current Euro Trade Setups

The greenback advanced against two of the four components, led by a 0.38 percent decline in the Euro, and the single currency may weaken further ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on April 3 as we see a growing number of central bank officials adopt a more dovish tone for monetary policy.

Indeed, ECB board member Jens Weidmann argued negative rates would be more appropriate in weakening the Euro, while Governing Council member Jozef Makuch anticipates further declines in the single currency, and it seems as though the central bank will push for a weaker exchange amid the ‘higher’ risk for deflation.

As a result, the ECB may continue to implement non-standard measures over the coming months, but we will need to see the EURUSD move below the 1.3500 handle to get increasingly bearish on the pair as it maintains the series of higher highs & higher lows carried over from the previous year.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.