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USDOLLAR Range in Focus- AUD Remains at Risk for Lower Low

USDOLLAR Range in Focus- AUD Remains at Risk for Lower Low

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Range in Focus as Bearish RSI Momentum Wanes

- AUDUSD Edges Higher Ahead of 4Q GDP as RBA Keeps Rate on Hold





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







Forex_USDOLLAR_Range_in_Focus-_AUD_Remains_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_Picture_3.png, USDOLLAR Range in Focus- AUD Remains at Risk for Lower Low

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Topside Break/Close in RSI to Highlight Further Sideways Price Action
  • Interim Resistance: 10,657 (61.8 expansion)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,509 (23.6 retracement) to 10,524 (38.2 retracement)





ISM New York (FEB)




IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR)




Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy


The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) continued to pare the sharp decline from the previous month, but the greenback remains at risk of facing range-bound prices ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as it remains limited by former support around the 10,615 region.

The topside break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) certainly suggests that a key low is in place as the oscillator carves a new series of higher highs paired with higher lows, and fundamental developments coming out of this week may set the tone for the remainder of the month as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

With the ADP Employment report expected to show a 155K rise in February, a further slowdown in U.S. job growth may undermine market speculation of seeing an upbeat NFP report on Friday, and a slew of dismal developments may generate another selloff in the greenback as it dampens the Fed’s scope to deliver another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting.

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Forex_USDOLLAR_Range_in_Focus-_AUD_Remains_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_ScreenShot167.png, USDOLLAR Range in Focus- AUD Remains at Risk for Lower Low


Forex_USDOLLAR_Range_in_Focus-_AUD_Remains_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_Picture_1.png, USDOLLAR Range in Focus- AUD Remains at Risk for Lower Low
  • Break Below Soft Support (0.8940-50) Favors Downside Targets as Bearish RSI Remains Intact
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9050 (23.6% expansion) to 0.9070 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.8670 (100.0% expansion) to 0.8700 (78.6% expansion)

Three of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.70 percent decline in the Japanese Yen, while the Australian dollar gained 0.03 percent ahead of the region’s 4Q GDP report as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retained its current policy in March.

Indeed, it seems as though the RBA is toughing its verbal intervention on the higher-yielding currency in an effort to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy, and a dismal 4Q GDP print may put increased pressure on the central bank to further embark on its easing cycle as Governor Glenn Stevens continues to warn of higher unemployment in 2014.

In light of the recent developments, we still favor ‘selling bounces’ in the AUDUSD as it carves a lower high around the 0.9050 region, and the pair remains at risk for a lower low as the bearish RSI momentum continues to take shape.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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