News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Clarida Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min)
  • Bitcoin cooling off after an impressive run to end the month of July $BTCUSD #Bitcoin
  • Narrator: Not today. Nice rebound staged off that critical support level with oil and yields firming up a bit on the session. Will bulls push onward to print a higher high? $SPY #Trading #Markets
  • NY Fed accepts $909.44 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
  • RT @IG_US: Watch @GuyAdami & @RiskReversal discuss - Earnings Recap - Rates In Reverse - Economic Slowdown? - Plus strategist @CVecchioFX…
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum are both recovering from the early-summer slumps that enveloped the crypto market. Get your market update from $btc market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.90%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • $USD still sticking to the range. I'd be surprised if this holds until #NFP on Friday. But at the least there's some definition to work off of $DXY
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.43% Gold: -0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.90% View the performance of all markets via
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - SEC will take powers "as far as they go" when regulating crypto - I am looking forward to reviewing filings for Bitcoin ETFs
EURUSD to Resume 2008 Bear Trend on Close Below 1.3800

EURUSD to Resume 2008 Bear Trend on Close Below 1.3800

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Pares Decline as Faster 4Q Inflation Undermines Dovish Fed Policy

- Euro Needs Close Above 1.3800 for Bullish View; ECB Meeting in Focus





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







Forex_EURUSD_to_Resume_2008_Bear_Trend_on_Close_Below_1.3800__body_Picture_3.png, EURUSD to Resume 2008 Bear Trend on Close Below 1.3800

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Lower High Appears in Place as Bearish RSI Momentum Gathers Pace
  • Interim Resistance: 10,657 (61.8 expansion)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,509 (23.6 retracement) to 10,524 (38.2 retracement)





GDP Annualized (QoQ)(4Q S)



Personal Consumption(4Q S)



GDP Price Index(4Q S)



Core PCE (QoQ) (FEB)



ISM Milwalkee (FEB)



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (FEB F)



Univ. of Michigan Confidence (FEB F)



Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)



Pending Home Sales (YoY)



Fed's Stein, Kocherlakota, Evans and Plosser Speak in New York


GDP Annualized (QoQ)(4Q S)



Personal Consumption(4Q S)



GDP Price Index(4Q S)



The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) bounced back from a fresh weekly low of 10,545 amid the unexpected uptick in 4Q inflation, but the technical outlook continues to favor ‘selling bounces’ in the greenback as it carves a lower high in February.

The bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to suggest that former support around 10,615 will provide near-term resistance, and the dollar could be on course to mark a lower low as the recent slowdown in the U.S. economy drags on interest rate expectations.

With that said, the market reaction to next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls report may set the tone for March trading, and the dollar may continue to underperform against its major counterparts should the fundamental developments coming out of the world’s largest economy heighten the Fed’s scope to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for an extended period of time.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. Dollar Trade Setups

Forex_EURUSD_to_Resume_2008_Bear_Trend_on_Close_Below_1.3800__body_ScreenShot161.png, EURUSD to Resume 2008 Bear Trend on Close Below 1.3800


Forex_EURUSD_to_Resume_2008_Bear_Trend_on_Close_Below_1.3800__body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD to Resume 2008 Bear Trend on Close Below 1.3800
  • Failure to Close Above 1.3800 Should Preserve Bearish RSI Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0 expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3460 (50.0% expansion)

Two of the four components gained against the dollar, led by a 0.68 percent rally in the Euro, but a failure to close above the 1.3800 handle may continue to highlight a major top in the EURUSD amid the divergence in the RSI.

Despite the stronger-than-expected Euro-Zone Consumer Price report, the European Central Bank (ECB) may sound increasingly dovish in March amid the persistent slack in the real economy, and the single currency may face a sharp reversal next week should President Mario Draghi show a greater willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.

In turn, another failed attempt to close above 1.3800 should highlight a greater risk of seeing a short-term pullback in the EURUSD, and the pair may continue to follow the downward trend dating back to 2008 should the ECB’s 2016 economic projections highlight a threat for disinflation.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.