News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar may face swelling selling pressure from souring risk appetite over the COVID-19 delta variant and escalating tension with China. Get your $AUD markt update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/Vy81GwhvzP https://t.co/U5PgkYUot6
  • (ASEAN Tech) US Dollar Outlook Bearish: Thai Baht Still at Risk as SGD, PHP, IDR Outperform #USD $USDSGD $USDIDR $USDTHB $USDPHP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/08/05/US-Dollar-Outlook-Bearish-Thai-Baht-Still-at-Risk-as-SGD-PHP-IDR-Outperform.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/hvFwh6eTTg
  • 🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (31/JUL) Actual: ¥225.6B Previous: ¥-1083B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (31/JUL) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: ¥1087.4B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • Natural gas continues to look higher, as hot weather and drought conditions across the United States and Europe, help fuel the already strong demand narrative for the commodity. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/n1iT64aBM4 https://t.co/zsnejKOPvq
  • 9 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended lower, with 76% of the index’s constituents closing in the red. Energy (-2.93%), industrials (-1.37%) and consumer staples (-1.26%) underperformed, whereas communication services (+0.23%) and information technology (+0.19%) ended higher. https://t.co/ZhikvkT3L6
  • The Japanese Yen could rise against the US Dollar and Australian Dollar as retail investors increase upside exposure in USD/JPY and AUD/JPY. What are key technical levels to watch? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/tZDMOGf8JI https://t.co/ECryTOl1ui
  • 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 5.25% Expected: 5.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision due at 22:00 GMT (15min) Actual: 5.25% Expected: 5.25% Previous: 4.25% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • The US Dollar put in a strong spike this morning on the back of some comments from FOMC Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/eegD686FEi https://t.co/FQsHwu6RjN
USD Retains Bullish Trend- Bearish Euro Divergence on Tap?

USD Retains Bullish Trend- Bearish Euro Divergence on Tap?

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Threatens Bullish Trend; Closing Price in Focus

- Euro Retains 2008 Trend; Bearish Divergence Taking Shape?

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10676.21

10700.81

10631.5

-0.19

166.68%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Retains_Bullish_Trend-_Bearish_Euro_Divergence_on_Tap_body_Picture_3.png, USD Retains Bullish Trend- Bearish Euro Divergence on Tap?

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Will Retain Bullish Bias on Close Above 10,657 (61.8 expansion)
  • Relative Strength Index Suggests Bullish Momentum Retains Intact
  • Interim Resistance: 10,753 (23.6 expansion) to 10,759 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,657 (61.8 extension)- Closing Basis

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

No Scheduled Releases

The sharp decline in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) was short-lived amid thin market conditions, and we will preserve a bullish outlook on a close above 10,657 (61.8 percent Fibonacci expansion) as the upward trend remains intact.

With the slew of Fed officials (Charles Plosser, Jeremy Stein, Jeffrey Lacker, Ben Bernanke, William Dudley, Eric Rosengren, and Narayana Kocherlakota) scheduled to speak following the New Year holiday, any updates regarding the taper-timeline may help to instill an improved outlook for the greenback, and the group may sound more upbeat this time around as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

However, if the policymakers keep their lips sealed on the exit strategy, dismal developments coming out of the U.S. economy may put the bullish dollar trend at even greater risk, and the fundamentals may play a larger role in driving USD price action in 2014 as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. Dollar Trade Setups

Forex_USD_Retains_Bullish_Trend-_Bearish_Euro_Divergence_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot170.png, USD Retains Bullish Trend- Bearish Euro Divergence on Tap?

EURUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Retains_Bullish_Trend-_Bearish_Euro_Divergence_on_Tap_body_Picture_1.png, USD Retains Bullish Trend- Bearish Euro Divergence on Tap?
  • Close Below 1.3800 May Foreshadow Range-Bound Prices
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3800 (100.0 expansion) to 1.3830 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3650 (50.0 & 78.6 expansion)- Closing Basis

The dollar weakened against two of the four components, led by a 0.57 percent rally in the Euro, and the short-term spike in the EURUSD may fail to generate a longer-term trend as it struggles to hold above the 1.3800 handle.

Indeed, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Jens Weidmann argued that ‘subdued price pressures shouldn’t be a license for arbitrary monetary-policy easing as the board mulls negative deposit rates, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to implement more non-standard measures over the near-term as the protracted recovery raises the risk for disinflation.

Nevertheless, the EURUSD may make another run at the 1.3900 region as it retains the Relative Strength Index continues to carve a series of higher lows, but a bearish divergence may start to take shape as long as price holds below the downward trendline dating back to 2008.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES