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USD Clears Resistance Ahead of 3Q GDP- AUD at Risk for Lower Low

USD Clears Resistance Ahead of 3Q GDP- AUD at Risk for Lower Low

2013-12-04 16:25:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Needs to Close Above Resistance to Maintain Bullish Bias

- Australian Dollar Continues to Search for Support; Looking for Lower Low?

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10663.38

10669.31

10613.16

0.45

122.69%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Clears_Resistance_Ahead_of_3Q_GDP-_AUD_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_Picture_3.png, USD Clears Resistance Ahead of 3Q GDP- AUD at Risk for Lower Low

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Want to See Close Above Resistance to Favor Bullish Forecast
  • Need Topside Break in Relative Strength Index for Confirmation/Conviction
  • Interim Resistance: 10,658 (61.8 extension)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot- Closing Basis

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 29)

12:00

--

-12.8%

ADP Employment Change (NOV)

13:15

170K

215K

Trade Balance (OCT)

13:30

-$40.0B

-$40.6B

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (NOV)

15:00

55.0

53.9

New Home Sales (OCT)

15:00

429K

444K

New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

15:00

--

25.4%

Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book Survey

19:00

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) climbed to a fresh monthly high of 10,669 as the ADP Employment survey raised bets for a strong Non-Farm Payrolls print, and the greenback may track higher over the next 24-hours of trading should the Preliminary 3Q GDP highlight an improved outlook for the U.S. economy.

Indeed, an upbeat Beige Book along with a positive revision to the U.S. growth rate may further the FOMC’s case to taper the asset-purchase program at the December meeting, and the dollar may continue to carve a series of higher highs paired with higher lows as the central bank appears to be moving away from its easing cycle. In turn, the policy outlook may continue to limit the downside for the USD, and the technical outlook may also generate a more bullish forecast for the reserve currency as it threatens the bearish divergence carried over from the previous month.

As a result, a topside break in the oscillator may generate fresh monthly highs ahead of NFPs, and the bullish trend may continue to take in December as the USDOLLAR pushes back above former support.

Join DailyFX on Demandto Cover Current U.S. Dollar Trade Setups

Forex_USD_Clears_Resistance_Ahead_of_3Q_GDP-_AUD_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_ScreenShot042.png, USD Clears Resistance Ahead of 3Q GDP- AUD at Risk for Lower Low

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Clears_Resistance_Ahead_of_3Q_GDP-_AUD_at_Risk_for_Lower_Low_body_Picture_1.png, USD Clears Resistance Ahead of 3Q GDP- AUD at Risk for Lower Low
  • Threatens Trendline Support; RSI Preserve Bearish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9250 (23.6 retracement) to 0.9290 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 0.8990 Pivot to 0.9000 (1.618 expansion)

The dollar rallied across the board, led by a 1.37 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD may continue to push towards a lower low as the RSI maintains the bearish trend carried over from October.

The softer-than-expected 3Q GDP report may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further embark on its easing cycle as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation, and Governor Glenn Stevens may implement additional rate cuts in 2014 in order to further assist with the rebalancing of the real economy.

From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD may threaten the yearly low (0.8846) as it continues to search for support, but the pair may face a further decline in the coming days amid the growing deviation in the policy outlook.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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