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Bearish USD Trend at Risk on Taper Talk- Euro Searches for Support

Bearish USD Trend at Risk on Taper Talk- Euro Searches for Support

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Pares Decline Amid Bets for December Taper

- Euro to Resume Bearish Trend on Negative Deposit Rates

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10572.33

10575.45

10540.26

0.22

70.01%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_Bearish_USD_Trend_at_Risk_on_Taper_Talk-_Euro_Searches_for_Support__body_Picture_3.png, Bearish USD Trend at Risk on Taper Talk- Euro Searches for Support

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Preserves Downward Trend Ahead of Fed Minutes
  • Bullish Relative Strength Index Taking Shape
  • Interim Resistance: 10,658 (61.8 extension)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot- Closing Basis

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Advance Retail Sales (OCT)

13:30

0.1%

Advance Retail Sales Less Autos (OCT)

13:30

0.1%

Advance Retail Sales Less Auto and Gas

13:30

0.4%

Advance Retail Sales Control Group

13:30

0.2%

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)

13:30

0.0%

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)

13:30

1.0%

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (OCT)

13:30

0.1%

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (OCT)

13:30

1.7%

Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (OCT)

13:30

233.511

Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (OCT)

13:30

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy

15:00

Existing Home Sales (OCT)

15:00

5.16M

Existing Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

15:00

-2.5%

Business Inventories (SEP)

15:00

0.3%

Fed's James Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy

17:10

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

19:00

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) pared the decline from earlier this week as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year, saw scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the December 17-18 meeting, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may encourage a more meaningful recovery in the greenback as market participants continue to weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

The dollar may ultimately threaten the downward trend from back in July as the Relative Strength Index appears to be carving a more bullish structure, and the FOMC Minutes may strengthen the case for further dollar advances should the central bank show a greater willingness to move away from its easing cycle.

However, the advance to 10,641 may serve as a lower high should the policy statement undermine the taper-timeline laid out by Chairman Ben Bernanke, and the greenback may push to a lower low in the coming days if the Fed shows a greater willingness to carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014.

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Forex_Bearish_USD_Trend_at_Risk_on_Taper_Talk-_Euro_Searches_for_Support__body_ScreenShot435.png, Bearish USD Trend at Risk on Taper Talk- Euro Searches for Support

EURUSD Daily

Forex_Bearish_USD_Trend_at_Risk_on_Taper_Talk-_Euro_Searches_for_Support__body_Picture_1.png, Bearish USD Trend at Risk on Taper Talk- Euro Searches for Support
  • Fails to Hold Trendline Support; Correction Over?
  • Relative Strength Index Carving Bearish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3570-80 (23.6 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3290 (50.0 retracement) to 1.3300 Pivot

Two of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.63 percent decline in the Euro, and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the European Central Bank (ECB) shows a greater willingness to implement negative deposit rates for the monetary union.

It seems as though the run towards 1.3570-80 will serves as a lower high as the pair fails to maintain the upward trend, and the single currency may work its way back towards the 1.3300 handle as a head-and-shoulders top takes shape.

In turn, we will look for opportunities to ‘sell bounces’ in the EURUSD, and the policy outlook may continue to drive the exchange rate lower as the ECB remains primed to further embark on its easing cycle.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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