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Bullish USD Momentum Falters- GBP Topside Targets in View

Bullish USD Momentum Falters- GBP Topside Targets in View

2013-11-14 16:55:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Struggles as Yellen Backs Highly Accommodative Policy

- British Pound Threatening Bearish Momentum Ahead of Bank of England (BoE) Minutes

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10590.42

10625.51

10560.52

0.20

122.54%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_Bullish_USD_Momentum_Falters-_GBP_Topside_Targets_in_View_body_Picture_3.png, Bullish USD Momentum Falters- GBP Topside Targets in View

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bounces Off of Trendline Support; Holds Below Yesterday’s High
  • Fails to Maintain Bullish Relative Strength Index Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 10,658 (61.8 extension)- Former Support
  • Interim Support: 10,590 (50.0 retracement)- Former Resistance

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 9)

13:30

330K

Continuing Claims (Nov 2)

13:30

2875K

Nonfarm Productivity (3Q P)

13:30

2.00%

Unit Labor Costs (3Q P)

13:30

0.40%

Trade Balance (Sep)

13:30

-$39.0B

Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington

14:00

U.S. Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearing for Yellen

15:00

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) pared the decline from earlier this week as Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen refrained from undermining the taper-timeline laid out by Ben Bernanke, but the near-term rally could be coming to an end as the Relative Strength Index fails to maintain the bullish momentum.

Ms. Yellen said little in terms of the policy outlook as the prepared remarks highlighted a rather upbeat tone for the U.S. economy, but it seems as though that the 2014 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to delay the taper as she argues that there is no ‘misalignment’ in asset prices.

In turn, the rebound off of the October low (10,354) may have been just a correction, and the lack of momentum to push back above former support (10,658- 61.8 percent Fibonacci extension) may highlight a turning point for the dollar as it appears to have carved out a lower high in November.

Forex_Bullish_USD_Momentum_Falters-_GBP_Topside_Targets_in_View_body_ScreenShot394.png, Bullish USD Momentum Falters- GBP Topside Targets in View

GBPUSD Daily

Forex_Bullish_USD_Momentum_Falters-_GBP_Topside_Targets_in_View_body_Picture_1.png, Bullish USD Momentum Falters- GBP Topside Targets in View
  • Largely Retains Range From September; Continues to Close Above 1.5900
  • Relative Strength Index Breakout of Bearish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 1.6255 (October High) to 1.6300 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 1.5900 Pivot to 1.5910 (78.6 expansion)

The greenback managed to gain ground against three of the four components, while the British Pound bucked the trend, with the GBPUSD pushing back towards the 1.6100 handle.

The market reaction to the weaker-than-expected U.K. Retail Sales report was short-lived, with the GBPUSD continue to mark closes above the 1.5900 handle, and the sterling looks rather constructive from here as the RSI breaks out of the bearish trend dating back to September.

With the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes due out next week, the shift in the policy outlook should continue to limit the downside for the British Pound, and the GBPUSD could be coiling up for a more meaningful move at 1.6300 as the central bank looks poised to implement its exit strategy ahead of schedule.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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