News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/ZWwGB8J6I7
  • Ethereum is starting to outperform Bitcoin again ahead of ETH’s latest upgrade, while Binance continues to pare back business areas amid ongoing regulatory pressure. Get your crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ul4TIfI9bv https://t.co/Ht5Mr0uu91
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/m06h4hjwVP
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/LcfxFxFrTY
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/UgYlEILK5n
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/BXp2z6E0Kl
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/xGuTYZqYwh
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/EvRHfRQLgk
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable in the week ahead, eyeing risks such as a dovish RBA, surging Covid cases and recent crackdowns by Beijing. Might US NFPs offer some relief to AUD/USD? Get your weekly AUD forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/LQzQymM3ND https://t.co/XOCJl3vbu1
  • $AUDNZD closed at its lowest since December 2020 Prices pierced the 1.0541 - 1.0564 support zone, exposing the November low at 1.0418 A confirmatory downside close under support next week may open the door to further losses #AUD #RBA https://t.co/mybbgPHNX4
USDJPY Breaks Out Following NFP- Looking for Confirmation

USDJPY Breaks Out Following NFP- Looking for Confirmation

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Breaks Bearish Trend as Non-Farm Payrolls Beats Forecast

- Japanese Yen Struggling to Maintain Bullish Momentum From May

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10600.12

10616.44

10522.22

0.69

170.33%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USDJPY_Breaks_Out_Following_NFP-_Looking_for_Confirmation_body_Picture_3.png, USDJPY Breaks Out Following NFP- Looking for Confirmation

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Breaks Out of Bearish Trend From July; Want Close Above Trendline Resistance
  • Relative Strength Index Carving Bullish Trend
  • Interim Resistance: 10,589 (50.0 retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot to 10,492 (November Low)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

13:30

120K

204K

Unemployment Rate (Oct)

13:30

7.3%

7.3%

Underemployment Rate (Oct)

13:30

13.8%

Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (Oct)

13:30

60K

Change in Private Payrolls (Oct)

13:30

125K

212K

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Oct)

13:30

5K

19K

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct)

13:30

0.2%

0.1%

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct)

13:30

2.3%

2.2%

Average Weekly Hours All Employees (Oct)

13:30

34.5

34.4

Change in Household Employment (Oct)

13:30

-735K

Labor Force Participation Rate (Oct)

13:30

62.8%

Personal Income (Sep)

13:30

0.3%

0.5%

Personal Spending (Sep)

13:30

0.2%

0.2%

PCE Deflator MoM (Sep)

13:30

0.1%

0.1%

PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

13:30

1.0%

0.9%

PCE Core MoM (Sep)

13:30

0.1%

0.1%

PCE Core YoY (Sep)

13:30

1.3%

1.2%

Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Nov P)

14:55

74.5

72.0

Fed's Lockhart Speaks on the Economy in Oxford, Mississippi

17:00

Bernanke, Fischer, Summers Speak on Financial Crises at IMF

20:30

Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles

21:00

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) broke out of the bearish trend as Non-Farm Payrolls climbed a whopping 204K in October, and the greenback may continue to retrace the decline from back in July as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

Indeed, the dollar looks poise for a more meaningful rally amid the bullish momentum in the Relative Strength Index, and we would like to see a close above trendline resistance for added confirmation as it continues to find resistance around 10,589 (50.0 Fibonacci retracement) to 10,615 (78.6 Fibonacci expansion).

Nevertheless, a deeper look at the NFP report showed the jobless rate rising to an annualized 7.3% even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.8 percent - the lowest reading since 1978 – while Average Hourly Earnings increased an annualized 2.2 percent amid forecasts for a 2.3 percent print.

The strong 3Q GDP report paired with the pickup in job growth may heighten the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the December 17-18 meeting, but the central bank may look to carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014 as discouraged workers continue to leave the labor force.

Forex_USDJPY_Breaks_Out_Following_NFP-_Looking_for_Confirmation_body_ScreenShot353.png, USDJPY Breaks Out Following NFP- Looking for Confirmation

USDJPY Daily

Forex_USDJPY_Breaks_Out_Following_NFP-_Looking_for_Confirmation_body_Picture_1.png, USDJPY Breaks Out Following NFP- Looking for Confirmation
  • Bullish Break of Wedge/Triangle Formation
  • Relative Strength Index Retains Fails to Maintain Bearish Momentum from May
  • Interim Resistance: 99.00 Pivot to 99.20 (23.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 97.50 (38.2 retracement expansion) to 97.70 (38.2 expansion)

The greenback continued to gain ground against its major counterparts, with the Japanese Yen falling 0.98 percent, and the USDJPY looks primed for a move higher as it appears to be breaking out of the bearish trend dating back to May.

At the same time, the topside break in the RSI provides added conviction that we should look higher for the USDJPY, and it seems as though we’re on our way for a more meaningful move towards the 100.00 handle as the pair carves out a higher low in November.

In turn, we will cautious look to buy dips in the pair and would like to see a close above trendline resistance as well to confirm a more bullish forecasts for the USDJPY.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on Analyst on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES