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EURUSD Breaks Bullish Trend Ahead of NFP- Key Support in Focus

EURUSD Breaks Bullish Trend Ahead of NFP- Key Support in Focus

David Song, Strategist

- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls to Climb 120K, Unemployment Rate to Rise to 7.3%

- NFP Missed Market Forecast for the Last Three Prints

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are projected to increase a lackluster 120K in October, and marked slowdown in job growth may dampen the appeal of the greenback as the Federal Reserve retains a cautious outlook for the world’s largest economy.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 11/08/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD

Expected: 120K

Previous: 148K

DailyFX Forecast: 100K to 160K

Why Is This Event Important:

Given the Fed’s forward-guidance for monetary policy, a dismal employment report may encourage the central bank to further delay its exit strategy, and the board may forego the taper-timeline laid out by Chairman Ben Bernanke in order to promote a stronger recovery.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario




Personal Consumption (3Q A)



ADP Employment Change (OCT)



Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)



The ongoing slack in the real economy along with the recent slowdown in household spending may weigh on hiring, and a dismal print may halt the near-term rally in the dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario




Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (3Q A)



ISM Non-Manufacturing (OCT)



ISM Manufacturing (OCT)



Nevertheless, the uptick in the growth rate paired with the pickup in business outputs may generate a strong NFP figure, and a positive development should prompt a more meaningful rally in the greenback as it renews bets for a taper at the Fed’s December 17-18 meeting.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Join DailyFX on Demand for Full Coverage of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Bearish USD Trade: NFP Prints 120K or Lower

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Shift stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bullish USD Trade: Job Growth Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish euro trade, just in reverse

Potential Price Targets For The Release


Forex_EURUSD_Breaks_Bullish_Trend_Ahead_of_NFP-_Key_Support_in_Focus_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD Breaks Bullish Trend Ahead of NFP- Key Support in Focus

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Bullish Trend Gives Out; Carving Head-and-Shoulders Top?
  • Relative Strength Index Slips Below Support (37)
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3530-40 (61.8 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.3270 (23.6 expansion) to 1.3300 Pivot

Impact that the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report has had on USD during the last month


Data Released



Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP 2013

10/22/2013 12:30 GMT





September 2013 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

Forex_EURUSD_Breaks_Bullish_Trend_Ahead_of_NFP-_Key_Support_in_Focus_body_ScreenShot344.png, EURUSD Breaks Bullish Trend Ahead of NFP- Key Support in Focus

Employment increased another 148K following the 193K advance in August, while the jobless rate unexpectedly narrowed to 7.2% from 7.3% as discouraged workers continued to leave the labor force. The dollar took a hit following the weaker-than-expected print, with the EURUSD climbing above the 1.3700 handle, and the greenback continued to weaken throughout the day as the pair closed at 1.3780.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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