We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD threatening a deeper reversal as an ascending triangle has built, short-term. Get your EUR/USD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/qmGzD3rbOZ
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.37% US 500: -0.42% Germany 30: -1.26% France 40: -1.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zQL4nNXJsy
  • $SPX < 3,200
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.48% Oil - US Crude: -1.02% Silver: -1.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fuN1JsPmS0
  • $EURUSD resistance has held thus far. But higher-lows coming in, setting up an ascending triangle this is similar to the backdrop in USD in early-Jan, just before the bullish reversal came in - discussed here at the time https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/01/07/correction-conundrum-in-the-us-dollar-eur-usd-usd-cad-aud-usd-js57.html https://t.co/uze2m6I5y7
  • 🇺🇸 USD Consumer Confidence Index (FEB), Actual: 130.7 Expected: 132.2 Previous: 130.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • Taking this morning's Consumer Confidence report with a grain of salt... initial survey data chopped off on the 18th of every month...
  • 🇺🇸 USD Conf. Board Present Situation (FEB), Actual: 165.1 Expected: N/A Previous: 173.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • Consumer confidence below expectations and last month's print... $USD a touch weaker https://t.co/DYNQjw1u8w
  • 🇺🇸 USD Conf. Board Present Situation (FEB), Actual: 165.1 Expected: N/A Previous: 175.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
USD Getting Oversold Ahead of NFPs- AUD Correction on Horizon

USD Getting Oversold Ahead of NFPs- AUD Correction on Horizon

2013-10-18 13:50:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Extends Decline; Marks Fresh Monthly Low of 10,389

- Australian Dollar Continues to Outperform; Slower Inflation Ahead

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10408.09

10438.14

10389.67

-0.13

103.56%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Getting_Oversold_Ahead_of_NFPs-_AUD_Correction_on_Horizon_body_Picture_3.png, USD Getting Oversold Ahead of NFPs- AUD Correction on Horizon

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Fails to Maintain Range; Slips to Fresh Monthly Low (10,414)
  • RSI May Threaten Bearish Trend Amid Imminent Oversold Signal
  • Former Support to Act as New Resistance: 10,470 Pivot
  • Interim Support: 10,369 (61.8 expansion) to 10,375 (50.0 retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed's Daniel Tarullo Speaks on Orderly Resolution

17:00

Fed's Charles Evans Speaks on U.S. Economy

18:00

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on Orderly Resolution

19:40

Fed's Jeremy Stein Speaks on Financial Imbalances

20:30

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) extended the decline from earlier this week as a growing number of Fed officials scale back their willingness to taper the asset-purchase program, and the bearish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency may gather pace over the near-term as market participants see a further delay in the central bank’s exit strategy.

Indeed, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said tapering the quantitative easing program is likely to be postponed following the government shutdown, and it seems as though the central bank will retain its highly accommodative policy stance throughout the remainder of the year in an effort to combat the fiscal drag.

As a result, more dovish rhetoric coming out of the Fed is likely to produce further weakness in the USD, and we may see a move into 10,369 (61.8 percent expansion) to 10,375 (50.0 percent retracement) as the reserve currency continues to search for support.

Nevertheless, the fundamental developments coming out of the world’s largest economy may help limit the downside for the greenback as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are projected to increase another 180K in September, but a further deterioration in the Participation Rate may undermine the job growth figures as the FOMC sticks to its forward-guidance for monetary policy.

Forex_USD_Getting_Oversold_Ahead_of_NFPs-_AUD_Correction_on_Horizon_body_ScreenShot258.png, USD Getting Oversold Ahead of NFPs- AUD Correction on Horizon

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Getting_Oversold_Ahead_of_NFPs-_AUD_Correction_on_Horizon_body_Picture_1.png, USD Getting Oversold Ahead of NFPs- AUD Correction on Horizon
  • Bullish Trend in Focus Following Double-Bottom
  • Relative Strength Index Approaching Resistance (79)
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9670 (61.8% expansion) to 0.9715 (50.0% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.9250 (23.6% retracement) to 0.9290 Pivot

Three of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.30 percent rally in the Australian dollar, but the AUDUSD may face a near-term correction in the days ahead as the Relative Strength Index approaches resistance (79).

Australia’s Consumer Price report may serve as the fundamental catalyst to spark a more meaningful pullback in the exchange rate as the headline reading for inflation is expected to narrow to an annualized 1.8 percent from 2.4 percent in the second-quarter, and a marked slowdown in price growth may renew bets for further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as the region continues to face an uneven recovery.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on Analyst on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.