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USD at Risk of Facing Limited Relief Rally as Fed Delays Exit

USD at Risk of Facing Limited Relief Rally as Fed Delays Exit

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Remains Range-Bound Amid Debt-Deal Talks

- Bearish EURUSD Setup in Focus Ahead of European Central Bank (ECB) Rhetoric

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10531.37

10540

10499.87

0.10

98.51%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_at_Risk_of_Facing_Limited_Relief_Rally_as_Fed_Delays_Exit_body_Picture_3.png, USD at Risk of Facing Limited Relief Rally as Fed Delays Exit

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Retains Opening Range Amid Government Shutdown
  • Relative Strength Index Retains Bullish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,470 Pivot

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Empire Manufacturing (OCT)

13:55

7.00

1.52

Fed's William Dudley Speaks on Monetary Policy

14:00

Fed’s John Williams Speaks on U.S. Economy

15:10

Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on U.S. Economy

23:15

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) continues to face range-bound prices amid the ongoing deadlock in Congress, but we may see a relief rally take shape over the next 24-hours of trading as U.S. policy makers try to draw up a short-term resolution ahead of the October 17 deadline.

Indeed, the reserve currency appears to be building a short-term base as the U.S. looks to avoid a default, and the dollar may make a move back towards 10,582 (23.6 percentFibonacci expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 percentFibonacci retracement) as there appears to be a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index.

However, the fiscal drag may prompt further dollar weakness as it limits the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the October 29-30 meeting, and the central bank may ultimately carry its highly accommodative policy stance into 2014 in order to encourage a stronger recovery.

Forex_USD_at_Risk_of_Facing_Limited_Relief_Rally_as_Fed_Delays_Exit_body_ScreenShot236.png, USD at Risk of Facing Limited Relief Rally as Fed Delays Exit

EURUSD Daily

Forex_USD_at_Risk_of_Facing_Limited_Relief_Rally_as_Fed_Delays_Exit_body_Picture_1.png, USD at Risk of Facing Limited Relief Rally as Fed Delays Exit
  • New Downward Trending Channel in Focus; Retains 2013 Range
  • Relative Strength Index Also Highlights Bearish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650-60 (78.6% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3360-70 (38.2% expansion)

Three of the four components weakened against the dollar, led by a 0.56 percent decline in the Euro, and the bearish trend may continue to take shape over the near-term as the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps the door open to further embark on its easing cycle.

With ECB President Mario Draghi scheduled to speak tomorrow at 18:00 GMT, dovish comments from the central bank head may prompt a more meaningful run at 1.3450 region (50.0 percent Fib retracement), and the bearish momentum may continue to gather pace ahead of the next policy meeting on November 7 as the Governing Council mulls more non-standard measures to boost lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME).

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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