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USDOLLAR Holds Key Low With FOMC on Tap- AUD Eyes Resistance

USDOLLAR Holds Key Low With FOMC on Tap- AUD Eyes Resistance

2013-10-08 15:50:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Preserves Opening Range; Carving Near-Term Bottom

- Bullish AUDUSD Momentum Eyes September High (0.9527)

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10472.33

10493.77

10463.11

-0.02

63.16%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USDOLLAR_Holds_Key_Low_With_FOMC_on_Tap-_AUD_Eyes_Resistance_body_Picture_3.png, USDOLLAR Holds Key Low With FOMC on Tap- AUD Eyes Resistance

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Holds Monthly Low at 10,455; Watching for Close Above 10,470 Pivot
  • Relative Strength Index Breakout Points to Bottoming Process
  • Interim Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,449 (100.0 expansion)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

NFIB Small Business Optimism (SEP)

11:30

94.3

93.9

Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Economy in Pittsburgh

16:25

Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

16:30

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) appears to be in a bottoming process as it preserves the opening range for October, and the greenback may continue to coil up in the days ahead as the Relative Strength Index breaks out of the bearish trend.

Indeed, the technical outlook for the greenback looks fairly constructive as it holds above the monthly low (10,455), but the USDOLLAR may continue to threaten 10,449 (100.00 percent Fibonacci expansion) as a budget deal fails to surface.

The stalemate in Congress may produce additional headwinds for reserve currency as the fiscal drag raises the risk of seeing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) retain its highly accommodative stance over the remainder of the year, and the bearish trend dating back to July may continue to take shape should we see a more material shift in the policy outlook.

Forex_USDOLLAR_Holds_Key_Low_With_FOMC_on_Tap-_AUD_Eyes_Resistance_body_ScreenShot204.png, USDOLLAR Holds Key Low With FOMC on Tap- AUD Eyes Resistance

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_USDOLLAR_Holds_Key_Low_With_FOMC_on_Tap-_AUD_Eyes_Resistance_body_Picture_1.png, USDOLLAR Holds Key Low With FOMC on Tap- AUD Eyes Resistance
  • New Upward Trending Channel to Threaten Broad Range
  • RSI Continues to Find Support Around 53
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9500 (38.2 retracement) to 0.9515 (1.618 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.9290 Pivot to 0.9270 (100.0 expansion)

Two of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.35 percent rally in the Australian dollar, and the AUDUSD looks poised to threaten the September range as the bullish trend continues to take shape.

The fundamental event risks on tap for later this week may keep the AUDUSD afloat as Australia Employment is expected to rebound 15.0K in September, and a positive print may ultimately produce fresh highs in the exchange rate as it dampens the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) scope to implement additional rate cuts.

In turn, we would need a key break above 0.9500 (38.2 percent retracement) to 0.9515 (1.618 percent expansion) to adopt a more bullish outlook for the Australian dollar, but the upward trend may be short-lived if data coming out of the $1T economy fails to meet market expectations.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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