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USD Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes- JPY Outperforms

USD Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes- JPY Outperforms

2013-10-07 16:30:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- Bearish USDOLLAR Setup Coming to an End Amid RSI Break

- Japanese Yen Outperforms; RSI Support in Focus





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







Forex_USD_Range_in_Focus_Ahead_of_Fed_Minutes-_JPY_Outperforms_body_Picture_3.png, USD Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes- JPY Outperforms

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Opening Range Remains in Focus; Monthly Low Holding at 10,455
  • Relative Strength Index Breaks Bearish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Interim Support: 10,449 (100.0 expansion)





Consumer Credit (AUG)




The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to hold its ground amid the government shutdown, but the greenback looks poised for a more meaningful rebound as the Relative Strength Index breaks out of the bearish trend.

Heighten uncertainties surrounding the U.S. fiscal outlook may continue to produce fresh lows in the greenback, and we will continue to watch the opening range for the month as the deadlock in Congress continues to dampen the Fed’s scope to taper the asset-purchase program at the October 29-30 meeting.

Nevertheless, as the RSI fails to maintain the bearish momentum, the break may ultimately produce range-bounce prices in the coming days, and the greenback may face choppy price action going into the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes as we have a slew of central bank speeches ahead of the policy statement.

Forex_USD_Range_in_Focus_Ahead_of_Fed_Minutes-_JPY_Outperforms_body_ScreenShot195.png, USD Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes- JPY Outperforms


Forex_USD_Range_in_Focus_Ahead_of_Fed_Minutes-_JPY_Outperforms_body_Picture_1.png, USD Range in Focus Ahead of Fed Minutes- JPY Outperforms
  • Downward Trending Channel Takes Shape; Close Below 97.00?
  • Bearish RSI Momentum Favors ‘Sell Rally’ Strategy
  • Interim Resistance: 100.60-70 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 96-40.50 (23.6 expansion)

The greenback weakened across the board, led by a 0.47 percent advance in the Japanese Yen, and the bearish momentum in the USDJPY may gather pace as long as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) sticks to the sidelines.

With Japan’s trade deficit expected to narrow in August, a positive development may increase the BoJ’s scope to retain its current policy over the remainder of the year, and the pair may continue to make fresh lows in the days ahead should Fed officials strikes a more cautious tone for the U.S. economy.

In turn, a break below the 200-Day SMA (96.66) would bring 96.40-50 (23.6 percent Fibonacci expansion) on our radar, but the RSI may limit the downside as it comes up against support (37).

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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