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USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Preserves October Low(10,473); Monthly Opening Range in Focus

- EURUSD Hits Fresh High (1.3606) on European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index







Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_Picture_3.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Holds Above October 1st Low (10,473); Watch Opening Range Take Shape
  • Bearish Relative Strength Index Momentum Approaching Oversold
  • Interim Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Soft Support: 10,469 (June low)





ADP Employment Change (SEP)




Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy




Fed's Bullard to Speak on Community Banks




Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Banking Sector




The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains under pressure amid the deadlock in Congress, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on the monthly opening ranges as market participants look towards the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on October 29-30.

With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to speak later today, his response to the government shutdown may reflect a greater willingness to further delay the exit strategy, but the event may have a limited impact on the dollar should the central bank head merely read his prepared remarks on the U.S. banking sector.

From a technical standpoint, the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index may bring fresh monthly lows in the days, but a near-term resolution from Congress may spark a relief rally in the dollar, which could prompt a more sideways trend.

Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_ScreenShot179.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance


Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_Picture_1.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance
  • Climbs to Fresh High (1.3606); RSI Coming Up Against Overbought
  • Made 8 Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.13530-40 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650-60 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450-60 (50.0 expansion)

Once again, all four components strengthened against the greenback, led by another 0.65 percent advance in the Japanese Yen, while the EURUSD appears to be on a more bullish path driven by the more neutral tone struck by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Indeed, it seems as though the lack of more-dovish ECB commentary was enough to prop up the EURUSD, and the pair looks poised to finally make a close above 1.13530-40 (61.8 expansion) as market participants scale back bets of seeing another Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) over the near-term.

In turn, the next topside objective comes in around 1.3650-60 (78.6 expansion), but a material shift in the RSI may trigger a key reversal as the oscillator approaches overbought territory.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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