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USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

2013-10-02 16:30:00
David Song, Strategist
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Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Preserves October Low(10,473); Monthly Opening Range in Focus

- EURUSD Hits Fresh High (1.3606) on European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10480.31

10518.19

10476.15

-0.22

82.04%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_Picture_3.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Holds Above October 1st Low (10,473); Watch Opening Range Take Shape
  • Bearish Relative Strength Index Momentum Approaching Oversold
  • Interim Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Soft Support: 10,469 (June low)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

ADP Employment Change (SEP)

12:15

180K

166K

Fed's Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:00

55.0

56.5

Fed's Bullard to Speak on Community Banks

19:20

16.00M

?

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Banking Sector

19:30

12.43M

?

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains under pressure amid the deadlock in Congress, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on the monthly opening ranges as market participants look towards the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on October 29-30.

With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to speak later today, his response to the government shutdown may reflect a greater willingness to further delay the exit strategy, but the event may have a limited impact on the dollar should the central bank head merely read his prepared remarks on the U.S. banking sector.

From a technical standpoint, the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index may bring fresh monthly lows in the days, but a near-term resolution from Congress may spark a relief rally in the dollar, which could prompt a more sideways trend.

Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_ScreenShot179.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance

EURUSD Daily

Forex_USDOLLAR_Opening_Range_in_Focus-_EUR_Searching_for_Resistance_body_Picture_1.png, USDOLLAR Opening Range in Focus- EUR Searching for Resistance
  • Climbs to Fresh High (1.3606); RSI Coming Up Against Overbought
  • Made 8 Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.13530-40 (61.8 expansion)
  • Interim Resistance: 1.3650-60 (78.6 expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3450-60 (50.0 expansion)

Once again, all four components strengthened against the greenback, led by another 0.65 percent advance in the Japanese Yen, while the EURUSD appears to be on a more bullish path driven by the more neutral tone struck by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Indeed, it seems as though the lack of more-dovish ECB commentary was enough to prop up the EURUSD, and the pair looks poised to finally make a close above 1.13530-40 (61.8 expansion) as market participants scale back bets of seeing another Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) over the near-term.

In turn, the next topside objective comes in around 1.3650-60 (78.6 expansion), but a material shift in the RSI may trigger a key reversal as the oscillator approaches overbought territory.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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