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USD Eyes Topside Targets as Fed Sees ‘Small Taper’ in October

USD Eyes Topside Targets as Fed Sees ‘Small Taper’ in October

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points:

- USDOLLAR Rebound Gathers Pace as Fed Talks QE Taper in October

- Australian Dollar Extends Decline as Market Sentiment Falters

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10549.71

10554.81

10483.56

0.65

127.62%

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Eyes_Topside_Targets_as_Fed_Sees_Small_Taper_in_October_body_Picture_3.png, USD Eyes Topside Targets as Fed Sees ‘Small Taper’ in October

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • USDOLLAR Eyes Sunday Gap Open as It Holds June Low (10,469)
  • Soft Resistance: 10,582 (23.6 expansion) to 10,589 (50.0 retracement)
  • Move Above 10,652 (38.2 expansion) to Foster Bullish Outlook
  • Relative Strength Index Breaks Bearish Momentum

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Fed's Esther George Speaks on U.S. Economy

16:30

Fed's Daniel Taurllo Speaks on Monetary Policy

16:40

Fed's James Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy

16:55

Fed's Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks on Financial Markets

17:45

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) extended the rebound from 10,471 as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – a voting member of the 2013 FOMC – talked up bets of seeing the central bank taper the asset-purchase program at the October 29-30 meeting, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may continue to prop up the reserve currency as the committee remains poised to implement its exit strategy over the coming months.

Indeed, Mr. Bullard floated the idea that the central bank may host a press conference following the next meeting, and we may see a growing number of Fed officials scale back their willingness to retain the highly accommodative policy stance as they see a stronger recovery next year.

With that said, the break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index certainly highlights a stronger recovery for the USD, and the dollar may continue to track higher next week as we have a slew of Fed policy makers scheduled to speak in the coming days.

Forex_USD_Eyes_Topside_Targets_as_Fed_Sees_Small_Taper_in_October_body_ScreenShot125.png, USD Eyes Topside Targets as Fed Sees ‘Small Taper’ in October

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Eyes_Topside_Targets_as_Fed_Sees_Small_Taper_in_October_body_Picture_1.png, USD Eyes Topside Targets as Fed Sees ‘Small Taper’ in October
  • Preserves Bullish Trend; RSI Fails to Retain Upward Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 0.9570 (50.0 retracement)
  • Former Resistance to Offer New Support: 0.9270 (100.0 expansion) to 0.9290 Pivot

The greenback continued to rally across the board, led by a 0.40 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the higher-yielding currency may weaken further over the near-term as market sentiment falters.

The AUDUSD may face a more meaningful reversal as the RSI fails to maintain the bullish trend, and we will target the downside objectives going into the following week as it may only be a matter of time before price follows suit.

In turn, we may see former resistance around 0.9270-0.9290 act as new support, but we may see a broader move to the downside as the AUDUSD appears to have carved a lower high in Septmeber.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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