News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.29% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.30% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/MTsEq7hKxa
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-18
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/XAFYM7zDJh
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.07% FTSE 100: 0.00% France 40: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.12% US 500: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/gxgRguXtKH
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/mQbf0KPldQ
  • USDCNH trend break may have legs... https://t.co/7eSxRtiOfI
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (DEC) Actual: -0.2% Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-18
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (DEC) Actual: -0.2 Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-18
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.25%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UfUYrWiJSX
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Final (DEC) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-18
USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap

USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap

2013-09-03 16:15:00
David Song, Strategist

The near-term correction in the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index should provide a buying opportunity as the bullish trend continues to take shape.

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10792.96

10810.05

10783.09

-0.07

56.00%

USDOLLAR 30-Minute

Forex_USD_Coiling_Up_Ahead_of_Feds_Beige_Book-_Topside_Break_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot052.png, USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Near-term resistance: 10,803 (38.2 retracement) - 10,806 (78.6 expansion)
  • Support at 61.8 percent retracement- 10,764, 61.8 percent expansion- 10,772
  • 30-Minute Relative Strength Index breaks bearish momentum
  • Game plan: buy on pullback

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL)

14:00

0.4%

0.6%

ISM Manufacturing (AUG)

14:00

54.0

55.7

ISM Prices Paid (AUG)

14:00

51.2

54.0

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to maintain the advance to 10,810 despite the slew of positive developments coming out of the world’s largest economy, and the greenback may continue to consolidate during the North American trade as the ISM Manufacturing employment component highlights a slower rate of growth in the U.S. labor market.

Indeed, the dollar looks poised for a pullback as it comes up against interim resistance (10,803-10,806), but the recent weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived as the 30-minute relative strength index fails to maintain the bearish trend. In turn, the near-term correction may provide us with an opportunity to buy the reserve currency at a lower price, and the reserve currency appears to be coiling up for a move higher as former resistance (10,772) continues to offer support.

USDOLLAR Daily

Forex_USD_Coiling_Up_Ahead_of_Feds_Beige_Book-_Topside_Break_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot054.png, USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap

A topside break in the USDOLLAR should bring the 10,845 (78.6 percent expansion) – 10,850 (100.0 percent expansion) range on the radar, and the Fed’s Beige Book may spark a near-term rally in the reserve currency should we see a greater number of district banks highlight a stronger recovery.

A more upbeat Beige Book may heighten the case for the FOMC to start tapering its asset-purchase program at the September 17-18 meeting, and we are likely to see a further shift in the policy outlook as the U.S economy gets on a more sustainable path. As a result, we will continue to look for a series of higher highs paired with higher lows, and the dollar may ultimately mark fresh yearly-highs over the near to medium-term as the central bank moves away from its easing cycle.

Forex_USD_Coiling_Up_Ahead_of_Feds_Beige_Book-_Topside_Break_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot056.png, USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap

AUDUSD Daily

Forex_USD_Coiling_Up_Ahead_of_Feds_Beige_Book-_Topside_Break_on_Tap_body_ScreenShot055.png, USD Coiling Up Ahead of Fed’s Beige Book- Topside Break on Tap
  • Retains bearish trend; 50-Day SMA (0.9102) overlaps trendline resistance
  • Watch RSI as it approaches resistance (53); topside break may highlight range-bound prices
  • Interim resistance: 0.9210-20 (61.8 percent Fib retracement)
  • Soft support: 0.8990 pivot; 0.8700 (78.6 retracement) – 0.8710 (38.2 expansion)

Three of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.27 percent decline in the Euro, while the Australian dollar is bucking the trend as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50 percent in September.

The RBA struck a rather neutral tone for the region, stating that the current policy stance remained appropriate, but the central bank may further embark on its easing cycle as the outlook for inflation remains subdued. At the same time, it seems as though Governor Glenn Stevens continues to favor a lower exchange rate to further assist the rebalancing of the real economy, and the central bank may continue to verbally intervene in the FX market to help address the risks surrounding the region.

In turn, we will retain our bearish forecast for the AUDUSD as it remains in a consolidation phase, and the relative strength index may provide a potential trigger to short the higher-yielding currency should the oscillator continue to find resistance around the 53 figure.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on Analyst on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES