News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Fed's Mester: -Want to see more, broader progress in recovery -May end year with inflation above 2%, but falling next year -Sees upside risks to inflation forecast -Sees upward valuation pressures in equity markets -Don't see elevated market risks now, but must be attuned $SPX
  • Inflation concerns revive the reflation trade, evident in yesterday’s Nasdaq drop DAX 30 likely to face increase selling pressure as tech stocks unwind. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Hey traders! Risk aversion really picked up yesterday at the close of the session. What is in-store today? Find out from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.49% Oil - US Crude: 0.35% Gold: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 14:30 GMT (15min)
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speech due at 14:30 GMT (15min)
  • JOLTS US job openings soar to 8.1M, the highest reading on record and well above the consensus forecast looking for 7.5M.
  • Not a pretty picture for the Nasdaq 100 which opens to its biggest bearish gap since October 2nd. Takes out the 100-day moving average and 38.2% Fib of the March-present range. The past year's trendline support still in place at ~12,900
  • Central Bank chat on tap later today. (BST/GMT+1)
  • US equities rebounding nicely after the opening bell on Wall Street. The recovery in risk appetite steers the US Dollar back down to intraday lows. $SPX $NDX $DJI
USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC- JPY Searching for Resistance

USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC- JPY Searching for Resistance

David Song, Strategist





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






Forex_USDOLLAR_Outlook_Hinges_on_FOMC-_JPY_Searching_for_Resistance_body_ScreenShot191.png, USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC- JPY Searching for Resistance

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.32 percent lower from the open, we may see the greenback consolidate over the remainder of the North American session as the 30-minute relative strength index comes up against oversold territory. Indeed, the advance 1Q GDP report fell short of market expectations as the growth rate increased an annualized 2.5 percent, but the pickup in private sector consumption instills an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth. In turn, we may see the reserve currency regain its footing ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision on May 1 as the central bank is widely expected to maintain its current policy next week.

Forex_USDOLLAR_Outlook_Hinges_on_FOMC-_JPY_Searching_for_Resistance_body_ScreenShot192.png, USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC- JPY Searching for Resistance

We anticipate the FOMC to maintain its asset purchase program at $85/month in an effort to spur a stronger recovery, but we may see a growing discussion to scale back on quantitative easing as the resilience in private sector consumption along with the budding recovery in the housing market raises the outlook for growth. As a result, the committee may raise its fundamental assessment for the U.S. economy, and the Fed may strike a more neutral to hawkish tone for monetary policy as the recovery gradually gathers pace. In turn, we may see the USDOLLAR carve out a higher low around the 10,500 region, and the bullish flag formation may continue to take shape in May as market participants scale back bets of seeing the FOMC expanding its balance sheet further.

Forex_USDOLLAR_Outlook_Hinges_on_FOMC-_JPY_Searching_for_Resistance_body_ScreenShot193.png, USDOLLAR Outlook Hinges on FOMC- JPY Searching for Resistance

The greenback weakened against three of the four components, led by a 1.46 percent rally in the Japanese Yen, and the low-yielding currency may continue to gain ground against its U.S. counterpart as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) moves to the sidelines. As the USDJPY carves a double-top just below the 100.00 figure, the near-term reversal may push the exchange rate back towards 95.90-96.00 – the 78.6 percent retracement from the 2009 high to the 2011 low – but we will look to buy dips on a longer-term scale as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda adopts a more aggressive approach in achieving the 2 percent target for inflation. The deviation in the policy outlook should drive the USDJPY higher over the longer-term, and we may see the pair threaten the 100.00 figure should the FOMC talk down bets for more QE.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.