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Will Dollar Index Extend Gain In the Next Sessions?

Will Dollar Index Extend Gain In the Next Sessions?

2013-03-13 21:08:00
David Rodriguez, Renee Mu,
Share:

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

LAST

PRICE

CHANGE %

USDOLLAR Index

10534.65

10563.66

10504.47

10550.64

0.144085

EURUSD Curncy

1.3034

1.3065

1.2924

1.2959

-0.57542

GBPUSD Curncy

1.4903

1.4982

1.4893

1.4924

0.140911

USDJPY Curncy

96.08

96.26

95.45

96.09

0.010408

AUDUSD Curncy

1.0324

1.0334

1.0282

1.0306

-0.17435

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index rallied on Euro and Australian Dollar weakness on the day. Outlook for the US Dollar remains positive amid signs of US economic recovery and risks in the Asia-pacific region.

On the US front, recent business, consumption, payroll and employment data all improved and beat expectations, signaling that the US recovery remains firm. Today’s US Advance Retail Sales data and Thursday and Friday’s US Producer and Consumer Price Index inflation reports should set the tone for next week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. If the February PPI release and Initial Jobless Claims data beat expectations, we expect the US Dollar may extend declines.

In the Asia-pacific region, potential changes in China, the world’s second largest economy, may bring high volatilities to the majors. Comments from central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan yesterday indicate that the PBOC has shifted its focus to fighting inflation and maintaining price stability. This increases the likelihood of further PBOC monetary policy tightening as well as more restrictive fiscal policy from the government. The combination could thereby reduce domestic consumption and have a particularly negative effect on the Australian economy. The Australia Dollar could see further downside pressure as a result.

Another top market driver from China will be the announcement of the next central bank chief within two days. As a leader in the reform in banking and financial system, Chief Zhou did not exclude the chance of keeping his current position during yesterday’s press conference. If it is the case, his extension would provide stability when China is grappling with sustaining an economic recovery. A new governor, on the other hand, will bring more uncertainties to the market and investors may seek safety—benefiting the safe-haven US dollar in short-term trading.

Economic Calendar

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Forecast

Previous

Thu

Mar 14

00:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate

(FEB)

High

5.5%

5.4%

12:30

USD

Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

High

1.7%

1.8%

12:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

Medium

350k

340k

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Written by David Rodriguez and Renee Mu, DailyFX Research Team

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