We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #DidYouKnow the global trade volumes dropped by close to 10% amid the Great Recession. Want to know your #tradewars history? Get it here: https://t.co/f4loFVimeY https://t.co/dsm02kQo7T
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JPJaD7lqOJ
  • US Dollar ASEAN Ahead: IDR, MYR, Trade Talks, Bank of Indonesia #ASEAN #USD #tradewars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/18/US-Dollar-ASEAN-Ahead-IDR-MYR-Trade-Talks-Bank-of-Indonesia.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/KdtdFBrePr
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/uZlNJOzt15
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.04% Wall Street: -0.06% US 500: -0.06% France 40: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MxO1wOfF99
  • Over the past 30 days, #ARS, #COP and the #MXN have been the best performing Latin American currencies vs. USD with 6.91%, 1.04% and 0.99% total returns.
  • #KRW, #PHP and the #JPY are expected to be the most active Asian currencies vs #USD with 1-week implied volatilities at 6.75, 4.92 and 4.60 respectively
  • The #JapaneseYen has posted some rare gains against the #USDollar on its daily chart, but important channel support still holds on an intraday basis. Keep a close eye on it now. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-jpy/2019/11/18/Japanese-Yen-Gains-But-USDJPY-Up-Channel-Remains-Key.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Cottle&utm_campaign=twr #USDJPY, #AUDJPY, #JPY
  • RT @FactSet: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX is 17.5, which is above the 5-year average (16.6) and the 10-year average (14.9). http…
  • Overnight index swaps are pricing in an 34.2% probability of a RBNZ rate cut during its next meeting on 02/12/2020 #NZD
Forex: USD Index Breakout Eyes 10,100- Further AUD Weakness Ahead

Forex: USD Index Breakout Eyes 10,100- Further AUD Weakness Ahead

2012-11-15 18:40:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10000.84

10010.23

9962.64

0.32

121.64%

Forex_USD_Index_Breakout_Eyes_10100-_Further_AUD_Weakness_Ahead_body_ScreenShot050.png, Forex: USD Index Breakout Eyes 10,100- Further AUD Weakness Ahead

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.23 percent higher from the open after moving 138 percent of its average true range, and the greenback looks poised to appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as the upward trend in the 30-minute relative strength index continues to take shape. Should the oscillator preserve the bullish formation from earlier this month, we may see former trendline resistance act as new support, and the short-term rally look poised to get carried into the following week as the flight to safety gathers pace. Nevertheless, headlines coming out of Europe may fuel a rebound in risk sentiment as the EU increases its effort to avert a Greek default, but the deepening recession in the euro-area is likely to become a greater concern for global investors as the debt crisis continues to dampen the fundamental outlook for the region.

Forex_USD_Index_Breakout_Eyes_10100-_Further_AUD_Weakness_Ahead_body_ScreenShot051.png, Forex: USD Index Breakout Eyes 10,100- Further AUD Weakness Ahead

Although the FOMC Minutes highlighted a greater willingness to pursue a further expansion in quantitative easing, Fed hawks are likely to present dissenting arguments for additional monetary support, and we may see a growing rift within the central bank as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. In turn, we may see a growing number of Fed officials strike a neutral tone for monetary policy, and the dollar should continue to trap higher over the near-term as the central bank looks to carry its wait-and-see approach into the following year. As the relative strength index climbs towards overbought territory, we may see a small pullback in the index, but we are now looking at move towards the 0.786 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,118 as the oscillator maintains the upward trend from back in September.

Forex_USD_Index_Breakout_Eyes_10100-_Further_AUD_Weakness_Ahead_body_ScreenShot052.png, Forex: USD Index Breakout Eyes 10,100- Further AUD Weakness Ahead

Two of the four components weakened against the U.S. dollar, led by a 1.08 percent decline in the Japanese Yen, while the Australian dollar shed another 0.64 percent as market participants scaled back their appetite for risk. Indeed, the high-yielding currency remains paired for further weakness as inflation expectations slip in the $1T economy slip to a three-year low, and the AUDUSD looks poised to give back the rebound from the previous month as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a dovish tone for monetary policy. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants now see the RBA lowering the benchmark interest rate by nearly 75bp over the next 12-months, and the downturn in interest rate expectations should dampen the appeal of the aussie as investors weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.