News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • US indices have a packed week ahead with earnings from the major technology names, US GDP data due and an FOMC rate decision. With so much on the docket the potential for volatility is heightened. Get your stock market forecast from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The US Dollar Index traded higher last week, sustaining its broader uptrend. Conflicting technical signals urge caution, but the directional bias remains skewed to the upside. Get your weekly USD technical forecast from @FxWestwater here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
USD Index Continues to Build Base, JPY At Risk Amid Slower Growth

USD Index Continues to Build Base, JPY At Risk Amid Slower Growth

David Song, Strategist





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD_Index_Continues_to_Build_Base_JPY_At_Risk_Amid_Slower_Growth_body_ScreenShot075.png, USD Index Continues to Build Base, JPY At Risk Amid Slower Growth

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.13 percent lower on the day after moving 91 percent of its average true range, but the sharp decline may be short-lived as the greenback holds above the 10,000 figure. Indeed, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the 30-minute relative strength index as it dips into oversold territory, and we should see a short-term bounce in the index once the oscillator gets back above 30, and we will need to see the index hold above the monthly low (9,980) to maintain our bullish forecast for the reserve currency. As the dollar appears to be carving out a short-term base in August, the index looks poised to retrace the sharp decline from the previous month, and we may see the dollar track higher next week as the economic docket is expected to encourage an improved outlook for the U.S.

USD_Index_Continues_to_Build_Base_JPY_At_Risk_Amid_Slower_Growth_body_ScreenShot076.png, USD Index Continues to Build Base, JPY At Risk Amid Slower Growth

Although the recent series of lower highs paired with lower lows casts a bearish outlook for the greenback, it seems as though the dollar remains stuck in a consolidation phase as it maintains the ascending channel from earlier this year. As we’re expecting to see a rebound in U.S. retail sales paired with sticky inflation, a slew of positive developments coming out of the world’s largest economy should prop up the greenback, and we may see a dollar track higher over the coming days as the data dampens expectations for additional monetary support. Although Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has taken note of the ‘fragile’ recovery, it seems as though the FOMC is moving away from quantitative easing as it continues to embark on ‘Operation Twist,’ and the committee may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year as the recovery gradually gathers pace.

USD_Index_Continues_to_Build_Base_JPY_At_Risk_Amid_Slower_Growth_body_ScreenShot077.png, USD Index Continues to Build Base, JPY At Risk Amid Slower Growth

Two of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.44 percent rally in the Japanese Yen, but the low-yielding currency may come under pressure next week as the world’s third-largest economy is expected to expand at a slower pace in the second quarter. The 2Q GDP report is expected to show Japan growing 0.6% during the three-months through June after expanding 1.2% in the first-quarter, and the slowing recovery may spark speculation for additional monetary support as the Bank of Japan maintains its pledge to pursue powerful monetary easing. Indeed, the BoJ may face additional pressures to intervene in the currency market amid the resilience in the Yen, but it appears as though the central bank will stick to the sidelines as policy makers hold an improved outlook for the region.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.