We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/VAYy9FGHcQ
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
  • Emerging market currencies haven’t been treated equally by the effects of global contagion, even if most have suffered to some degree. However withdrawal of investment flows could hit them all. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/QzNoNYgMgP https://t.co/9CV6iZt40j
  • My weekend trading video: 'S&P 500 Rises on Trump China Presser, #NFPs and Rate Decisions Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/05/30/SP-500-Rises-on-Trump-China-Presser-NFPs-and-Rate-Decisions-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/ZvoGoibzj1
  • Hopes are high for deeper European economic integration as the continent battles back from the coronavirus slowdowns – but will it hold? What impact can this have on #Euro? Find out from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/b9ZWRd4cTr https://t.co/gngm5tKqjz
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/iL7xlHLBiF
USD Index Struggles Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, JPY Eyes June High

USD Index Struggles Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, JPY Eyes June High

2012-07-16 15:55:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10117.58

10170.14

10116.42

-0.31

94.32%

USD_Index_Struggles_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_Testimony_JPY_Eyes_June_High_body_ScreenShot046.png, USD Index Struggles Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, JPY Eyes June High

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.31 percent lower from the open, we’re seeing the 30-minute relative strength index hold above 30, and the lack of momentum to push into oversold territory may produce a short-term correction ahead of the major event risks on tap for later this week. In turn, we should see the dollar work its way back towards the 10,200 figure, but the greenback may face range-bounce prices ahead of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony as currency traders weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Indeed, the dismal U.S. Advance Retail Sales report raised speculation for additional monetary support as private sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth, and the central bank head may keep the door open to expand the balance sheet further in an effort to stem the downside risks surrounding the region.

USD_Index_Struggles_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_Testimony_JPY_Eyes_June_High_body_ScreenShot047.png, USD Index Struggles Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, JPY Eyes June High

At the same time, it seems as though Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who also serves on the FOMC this year, is leaning towards more quantitative easing as it ‘has been an option on the table,’ but we should see the committee continue to carry out its current policy for the time being as central bank officials look for a stronger recovery in the second-half of the year. As the USDOLLAR holds above the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,118, we may see the index carve out a higher low around the key figure, and we are still looking for another run at 10,300 as the upward trend continues to take shape. Beyond the Bernanke testimony, we will also be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s Beige Book due out on Wednesday as the International Monetary Fund curbs its forecast for the world economy. Should the central bank survey instill a weakened outlook for the world’s largest economy, the fresh batch of data may heighten expectations for additional monetary support, and the dollar may come under increased pressure as market participants continue to look for another round of quantitative easing.

USD_Index_Struggles_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_Testimony_JPY_Eyes_June_High_body_ScreenShot048.png, USD Index Struggles Ahead Of Bernanke Testimony, JPY Eyes June High

Once again, the dollar weakened across the board on Monday, led by a 0.56 percent rally in the Japanese Yen, and the USDJPY may track lower this week as positive real interest rates in Japan increases the appeal of the low-yielding currency. As the Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its meeting minutes later this week, the central bank is likely to reiterate its pledge to pursue power monetary easing, but it seems as though the BoJ will refrain from expanding its asset purchase program as policy makers raise their outlook for the region. As the USDJPY breaks below the 200-Day SMA (79.00), the pair looks poised to retrace the rebound from June (77.65), but a less dovish statement from Fed Chairman Bernanke may spark a short-term reversal in the exchange rate, and the policy outlook will continue to heavily influence the pair as the Fed and BoJ keep the door open to expand monetary policy further.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.