We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.22% Oil - US Crude: -0.12% Gold: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/7UGWflcF7Y
  • - #NZDCHF outlook bearish as the pair struggles to surmount key resistance range - #NZDCAD trading at 13-month highs, but are technical cues hinting at a pullback? - #AUDNZD is again retreating from five-year resistance – how much will it decline? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/07/08/New-Zealand-Dollar-Analysis-NZDCHF-NZDCAD-AUDNZD.html
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.10% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lTYr3UzRhP
  • RT @DanielGMoss: A ‘second wave’ of #COVID19 cases threatens to hamper #Australia's tentative recovery Uncertainty around the future of fi…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.26%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.66%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ksJ0N2pq6W
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring how to trade the Euro vs the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/n6zwlZJmGO https://t.co/F8sLZvRG1q
  • If you missed today's session on IG Client Sentiment where I discussed the outlook for the #DowJones, $AUDUSD and $USDCAD while discussing fundamentals and technicals, check out the recording below and stay tuned for a full report! - https://t.co/2wVxhtItzX
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.213%) S&P 500 (+0.175%) Nasdaq Composite (+0.242%) [delayed] -BBG
  • RT @margaretyjy: Watch my Bloomberg TV interview at 9:00AM Singapore time. Coming in soon! https://t.co/Z6u6offept
  • The Core-Perimeter trading model helps traders understand interactions between global economies, helping to trade the assets embedded in these relationships. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/dKRAo00lfA https://t.co/jw5uvZBvRx
USD Index Looks To FOMC Minutes For Direction, GBP To Hold Range

USD Index Looks To FOMC Minutes For Direction, GBP To Hold Range

2012-07-11 14:15:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10145.77

10173.35

10129.46

-0.27

77.43%

USD_Index_Looks_To_FOMC_Minutes_For_Direction_GBP_To_Hold_Range_body_ScreenShot034.png, USD Index Looks To FOMC Minutes For Direction, GBP To Hold Range

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.30 percent lower on the day, the FOMC Minutes on tap for later today may prop up the greenback as the central bank appears to be moving away from quantitative easing. The fresh batch of central bank rhetoric should set the tone for the remainder of the week as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy, and we may see the Fed talk down speculation for additional monetary support as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. In turn, we should see the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern continue to take shape, and we would like to see the index clear the 10,200 figure to reinforce our bullish outlook for the USD. However, if the language suggests that an increased number of the committee is leaning towards another large-scale asset purchase program, the development may negate our call for a stronger dollar, and we may see the greenback threaten the June low (10,025) as investors raise bets for QE3.

USD_Index_Looks_To_FOMC_Minutes_For_Direction_GBP_To_Hold_Range_body_ScreenShot035.png, USD Index Looks To FOMC Minutes For Direction, GBP To Hold Range

As we have a higher low in place, the near-term outlook for the USDOLLAR remains tilted to the upside, and we may see a bullish breakout in the index as the Fed appears to be bringing its easing cycle to an end. Beyond the FOMC Minutes, we will be closely watching China’s 2Q GDP report as it’s supposed to show the slowest pace of growth since the first three-months of 2009, and a dismal development may sap risk-taking behavior as it casts a weakened outlook for the world economy. As a result, there’s speculation that the People’s Bank of China will continue to embark on its easing cycle in an effort to stem the risk for a ‘hard landing,’ but the region may struggle to prop up the slowing recovery as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on global growth. As the flight to safety gathers pace, we should see the dollar continue to benefit from safe-haven flows, and we are waiting to see another run at the 10,300 figure amid the series of higher lows paired with higher highs.

USD_Index_Looks_To_FOMC_Minutes_For_Direction_GBP_To_Hold_Range_body_ScreenShot036.png, USD Index Looks To FOMC Minutes For Direction, GBP To Hold Range

The greenback weakened against nearly all of its major counterparts, led by the 0.64 percent rally in the Australian dollar, while the sterling continued to recoup the losses from the previous week as it maintains the range-bounce price action carried over from June. We should see the GBPUSD continue to track sideways ahead of the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the following week, but the policy statement may spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound as the central bank appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle. BoE dove Adam Posen argued that the MPC has done ‘enough for now’ during a newspaper interview, and went onto say that commercial banks have become too cautious on lending as region remains in a technical recession. In light of the recent comments, its seems as though the committee will revert back to a wait-and-see approach over the remainder of the year, and we may see a relief rally in the GBPUSD should the central bank talk down speculation for additional asset purchases.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.