News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇿 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) Actual: 1.6% Expected: 0.5% Previous: -1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • 🇳🇿 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1) Actual: 2.4% Expected: 0.9% Previous: -0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones Analysis: Rising Long Exposure Seems Ominous With Fed Nearing. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/RHU2EWdGLo https://t.co/otxxsTo502
  • Bank of Canada's Macklem: - Choppiness in Q2 growth - House prices seen balancing - 2% inflation target timing unusually uncertain - BBG $USDCAD
  • The US 10-Year #Treasury yield soared on the #Fed The #bond appears to now be trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge That can at times be bullish A breakout above falling resistance could open the door to resuming the uptrend since last year https://t.co/scLY5rbZhS
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.5% Previous: -1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.9% Previous: -0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • Update on #DowJones after my report on retail trader positioning We are now most net-long since May and close to late January levels Majority of clients being net-long could hint at further losses after the less-dovish #Fed Eyes on 2020 trendline https://t.co/Whj4iYD13Y https://t.co/VRah9CRmD5
  • 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.25% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • Brazil Central Bank: Sees another policy adjustment of the same magnitude at the next policy meeting $USDBRL
USD Rally To Gather Pace On Rate Expectations, Euro Selloff In Sight

USD Rally To Gather Pace On Rate Expectations, Euro Selloff In Sight

David Song, Strategist

DJ FXCM Dollar Index

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10018.28

10026.87

9964.75

0.21

95.55%

USD_Rally_To_Gather_Pace_On_Rate_Expectations_Euro_Selloff_In_Sight_body_ScreenShot041.png, USD Rally To Gather Pace On Rate Expectations, Euro Selloff In Sight

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.21 percent higher from the open after moving 96 percent of its average true range, and we may see the reserve currency appreciate further during the North American trade as the shift away from risk-taking behavior gathers pace. However, as the 30-minute relative strength index falls back from a high of 69, the pullback in the oscillator may ultimately lead to a short-term correction, and we may see the dollar consolidate over the remainder of the week as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. Nevertheless, the shift in the policy outlook reinforces our bullish forecast for the USD, and the reserve currency should appreciate further throughout the year as the Fed looks to normalize monetary policy.

USD_Rally_To_Gather_Pace_On_Rate_Expectations_Euro_Selloff_In_Sight_body_ScreenShot042.png, USD Rally To Gather Pace On Rate Expectations, Euro Selloff In Sight

Indeed, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota curbed speculation for another round of quantitative easing, arguing that the FOMC should look to drop the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) later this year, and we should see the committee continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as central bank officials take note of the more robust recovery. At the same time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked down the risks surrounding the world’s largest economy, stating that U.S. banks could withstand potential shocks coming out of Europe, and the central bank head may continue to strike an improved outlook for the region as the recovery gets on a more sustainable path. As relative strength index maintains the upward trend from earlier this year, we are still looking for another run at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,118, and the shift in central bank rhetoric should continue to prop up the dollar as interest rate expectations pick up.

USD_Rally_To_Gather_Pace_On_Rate_Expectations_Euro_Selloff_In_Sight_body_ScreenShot043.png, USD Rally To Gather Pace On Rate Expectations, Euro Selloff In Sight

All four components continued to weaken against the USD, led by a 0.40 percent decline in the Australian dollar, while the Euro shed 0.25 despite the positive headlines coming out of the region. Indeed, Fed Chairman Bernanke said European policy makers ‘need to step up and do a lot more’ in addressing the sovereign debt crisis, and the global community may continue to push the EU to take a more proactive approach in curbing the risk for contagion as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area remains bleak. Moreover, Mr. Bernanke warned that ‘further strengthening of the European banking system’ will be required as the region continues to face a risk for a prolonged recession, and we may see the European Central Bank continue to carry out its easing cycle this year in an effort to shore up the ailing economy. As the head-and-shoulders top in the EURUSD takes shape, we are looking for a major selloff in the exchange rate, and the pair should come up against the 23.6 percent Fib from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50 to test for support.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES