News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold - Channel broken...#xau #gold @DailyFXTeam
  • Crude Oil Prices Surge to 32-Month High on Demand Optimism
  • 🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Final (APR) Actual: 15.8% Previous: 3.4%
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 76.03%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 86.63%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Final (APR) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.4%
  • Gold Prices Fall as Fed Balance Sheet Hits $8 Trillion, Reverse Repo Surges
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.31% France 40: 0.31% Germany 30: 0.21% US 500: 0.11% Wall Street: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • 🇨🇳 FDI (YTD) YoY (MAY) Actual: 35.4% Previous: 38.6%
USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range

USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range

David Song, Strategist

DJ FXCM Dollar Index





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_Australian_Dollar_To_Threaten_Range__body_ScreenShot005.png, USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.25 percent lower from the open after moving 69 percent of its average true range, and we may see the greenback consolidate further over the next 24-hours of trading as it breaks out of the downward trending channel from the previous month. However, as the index carves out a higher low, we should see the rebound from 9,738 gather pace in the coming week, and market participants may turn increasingly bullish against the USD as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke withdraws comments support another large-scale asset purchase program. The shift in the central bank rhetoric should drive the USD higher in March, and we may see the FOMC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as growth and inflation picks up.

USD_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_Australian_Dollar_To_Threaten_Range__body_ScreenShot006.png, USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range

As the USDOLLAR carves out a higher low coming into March, we should see the index continue to retrace the decline from earlier this year, but the downward trend in the relative strength index continues to paint a mixed picture for the reserve currency. As the index struggles to push back above the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,830, the dollar looks as though it will track sideways over the near-term, but we are more bullish than bearish against the dollar as the fundamentals support a higher exchange rate. In turn, it seems as though it will only be a matter of time before we see the 50.0 percent Fib give way, and we may see the index make another run at the 78.6 percent Fib around 10,118 as market participants scale back speculation for QE3.

USD_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_Australian_Dollar_To_Threaten_Range__body_ScreenShot007.png, USD Weakness To Be Short-Lived, Australian Dollar To Threaten Range

Three of the four components advanced against the dollar, led by a 0.60 percent in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may appreciate further over the near-term as the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent in March. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see a 15 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next week, and we may see the exchange rate breakout of the narrow range carried over from February should the central bank talk down expectations for lower borrowing costs. However, we may see the central bank increase its efforts to combat the slowing recovery in the $1T economy, and Governor Glenn Stevens may keep the door open to lower the cash rate further in an effort to stem the downside risks for the region. In turn, we may see the AUDUSD threaten the floor around 1.0600, and we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it continues to track lower.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.