News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Interest Rate Decision due at 02:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.25% Previous: 0.25%
  • S&P 500 Index Hits Record Highs as Bond Yields Drop, Nikkei 225 Falls as Machine Orders Contract
  • The British Pound's technical posture against the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc presents near-term levels that may dictate upcoming price action. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • (Market Alert) Singapore Dollar Gains on MAS, GDP Beat. Will USD/SGD Breach Key Support? $USDSGD #SGD #MAS #Singapore #GDP
  • The Swiss Franc has positioned itself against key levels versus the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Euro over the past week. Where next for AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and EUR/CHF? Find out from @FxWestwater here:
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR) due at 00:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 111.8
  • 🇸🇬 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q1) Actual: 2.0% Previous: 3.8%
  • $USDSGD sinking to its lowest since April 7th/9th after #Singapore 1Q GDP surprised higher #MAS also left policy largely unchanged The passing of key event risk likely opened the door for #SGD to advance following #USD weakness on Wall Street (full alert to follow!)
  • 🇸🇬 GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv (Q1) Actual: 0.2% Expected: -0.2% Previous: -2.4%
  • 🇯🇵 Machinery Orders YoY (FEB) Actual: -7.1% Expected: 2.3% Previous: 1.5%
USD Index Maintains Trendline Support Ahead Of Bernanke, NFPs

USD Index Maintains Trendline Support Ahead Of Bernanke, NFPs

David Song, Strategist

DJ FXCM Dollar Index





Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index






USD_Index_Maintains_Trendline_Support_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_NFPs_body_ScreenShot075.png, USD Index Maintains Trendline Support Ahead Of Bernanke, NFPs

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.76 percent lower from the open after moving 140 percent of its average true range, and recent weakness in the greenback may gather pace over the remainder of the week as the reserve currency continues to trade within a downward trending channel. As market participants ramp up their appetite for risk, currency traders may continue to move away from the USD, but we should see a short-term rebound going into the end of the week as long as the index holds trendline support. As the recent decline remains heavily oversold, we will need to wait for the 30-minute relative strength index to push back above 30 to see a rebound materialize, but the currency market may face increased volatility on Thursday as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify in front of Congress at 15:00 GMT.

USD_Index_Maintains_Trendline_Support_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_NFPs_body_ScreenShot076.png, USD Index Maintains Trendline Support Ahead Of Bernanke, NFPs

Indeed, the USDOLLAR broke key support around the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,710, the greenback looks poised to retrace the rebound from the end of October, but we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index for confirmation. As the bearish divergence in the RSI continues to pan out, we may see the oscillator continue to push into oversold territory, and the bearish momentum underlining the USD could open the door for a test of the 23.6 percent Fib as it searches for support. As the Henry Hawkins testimony comes into focus, we expect Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to reiterate the policy statement from the previous month, and the central bank head may keep the door open to expand monetary policy further. However, in order to see a major USD reversal, we would need Chairman Bernanke to soften his dovish tone for monetary policy and strike a balanced view for the world’s largest economy as market participants maintain bets for another large-scale asset purchase program.

USD_Index_Maintains_Trendline_Support_Ahead_Of_Bernanke_NFPs_body_ScreenShot077.png, USD Index Maintains Trendline Support Ahead Of Bernanke, NFPs

The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, led by a 1.00 percent advance in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may continue outperform against its major counterparts as the rise in risk-taking behavior gathers pace. Although the AUD/USD remains overbought, the pair looks poised to track higher as long as price action holds above the 10-Day SMA at 1.0572. However, as the aussie-dollar struggles to clear the October high (1.0752), the pair could be carving a triple top in February, and we expect to see Australian dollar weakness over the near to medium term as the fundamental outlook for the $1T economy deteriorates. As the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a dovish tone for monetary policy, market participants are still looking for a 100bp worth of rate cuts in 2012 according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, and expectations for lower borrowing costs are likely to materialize over the near-term as the slowing recovery dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.