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U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

2011-05-10 17:55:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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DJ FXCM Dollar Index

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

9541.89

9562.32

9509.42

0.26

74.32%

U.S._Dollar_Index_Pares_Decline_Ahead_Of_China_Event_Risks_body_ScreenShot026.png, U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

The DJ-FXCM U.S. dollar index pared the overnight decline to 9509.42, and the gauge may make another run at 9600.00 as the rebound gathers pace. The index added 0.26% on Tuesday after moving 74% of its average true range, and the uncertainties surrounding the world economy may continue to fuel demands for the reserve currency as investors keep a lid on their appetite for risk. However, as the 30-minute relative strength index falls back from overbought territory, the index may consolidate going into the middle of the week, but the slew of data coming out of China later tonight is likely to heavily influence risk sentiment as investors weigh the outlook for the global growth.

U.S._Dollar_Index_Pares_Decline_Ahead_Of_China_Event_Risks_body_ScreenShot025.png, U.S. Dollar Index Pares Decline Ahead Of China Event Risks

All four components of the DJ-FXCM dollar index weakened on Tuesday, led by a 0.55% decline in the Japanese Yen, but the rebound in the USD/JPY may taper off over the next 24-hours of trading as the pair maintains the narrow range carried over from the end of the previous week. However, the GBP/USD may continue to threaten the upward trend from earlier this year as the Bank of England is widely expected to maintain a dovish tone in its quarterly inflation report, and the British Pound may face additional selling pressures during the overnight trade as interest rate expectations falter. At the same time, the Euro remains at risk as fears surrounding the sovereign debt crisis continues to bear down on investor confidence, and the single-currency may continue to give back the gains from earlier this year as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet softens his hawkish tone for monetary policy. In turn, the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD appear to be in the processes of carving out a head-and-shoulders top in May, and the dollar index may continue to trend higher over the near-term as the ECB and BoE look to maintain the current policy going into the second-half of the year.

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

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