News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-0.003%) S&P 500 (+0.073%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.021%) [delayed] -BBG
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc Analysis: USD/JPY, USD/CHF May Fall as Long Bets Rise #Yen #Franc $USDJPY $USDCHF https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/04/14/Japanese-Yen-Swiss-Franc-Analysis-USDJPY-USDCHF-May-Fall-as-Long-Bets-Rise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/6EXLAB614y
  • Retail traders appear to be reducing long exposure in the Euro after recent gains. This hints that EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may rise in the near term, but could this trend last down the road? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Y1d4DXeKEE https://t.co/JmGCbxkfWp
  • Gold Prices Probe Barrier as Inflation Data Sinks the USD and Yields https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/14/Gold-Prices-Probe-Barrier-as-Inflation-Data-Sinks-the-USD-and-Yields-.html https://t.co/bdNaQQsMqu
  • The Indian Rupee rose as the Nifty 50 slightly fell after the RBI left benchmark rates unchanged despite recent weakening inflation and a massive fiscal spending plan. Will USD/INR bounce? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/SwufKMOwfQ https://t.co/R2XfXKiRT5
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gxv7FwyhsM
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.26% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hQBjkAnaA1
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.35% Germany 30: 0.04% US 500: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/VrybX61UEU
  • British Pound Price Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Poised to Extend Climb - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2021/04/14/British-Pound-Price-Outlook-GBPUSD-GBPJPY-Poised-to-Extend-Climb.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $GBP $GBPUSD $GBPJPY https://t.co/rDOIqMJQfk
  • The US Dollar may extend gains against the Thai Baht. But, its price action within USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/IDR seem to be favoring more range-bound trading conditions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/DYCLXAFcCr https://t.co/q3hRzYvE7n
US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

David Song, Strategist

US Dollar Talking Points

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounces back from a three-day losing streak ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on March 17, and fresh forecasts coming out of the central bank are likely to influence theGreenback as Fed officials are slated to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Fundamental Forecast for US Dollar: Neutral

The US Dollar Index (DXY) attempts to retrace the decline from the monthly high (92.50) amid the recent rebound in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and it remains to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy as Congress passes the $1.9 trillion coronavirus recovery package.

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

At the same time, the 379K rise in US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may encourage the FOMC to adopt an improve outlook as the central bank lays out an outcome-based approach for monetary policy, and the Fed rate decision may spur a bullish reaction in the US Dollar if the central bank utilizes the SEP to signal a looming change in policy.

US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

Source: FOMC

It remains the FOMC will adjust the monetary policy outlook as the minutes from the January meeting insist that “the Committee's current guidance was well suited to the current environment because it describes how policy would respond based on the path of the economy,” but an upward revision in the Fed’s interest rate dot may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it reflects a greater willingness to scale back the emergency measures.

However, recent remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell suggest the Fed is in no rush to alter the course for monetary policy as the central bank head warns that “it’s not at all likely that we’d reach maximum employment this year. It seems as though the FOMC is on a preset course as the central bank extends the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facilityby three months to June 30, and the committee may endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the first half of 2021 as the central bank remains “committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time.”

With that said, the FOMC may stay on track to “increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month, and more of the same from Fed officials may produce headwinds for the US Dollar as the central bank relies on its non-standard tools to achieve its policy targets.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
Recommended by David Song
Download the DailyFX Forecast for USD
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES