News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Democratic Senator Manchin open to President Biden's "human infrastructure" and undoing some GOP tax cuts - NBC
  • pretty sure I made a Time Variance Authority reference when critiquing strong form market efficiency earlier today in the @Nadex boot camp needless to say I’m hyped for #Loki episode 3 tonight
  • Bank of Japan member says need to enhance easing during the expected recovery - BBG
  • Bank of Japan member says vaccination delays will mean slower growth - BBG
  • Heads up traders! Will be covering the #Euro in the aftermath of last week's #Fed and incoming US PCE data and the BoE later this week, looking at retail trader positioning $EURUSD $EURGBP Starting the session in about 10min, signup below! https://t.co/N2qpEMbpBv
  • Please join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here: https://t.co/AzOQip9B3r https://t.co/Bp8J3szHKq
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 23:50 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-22
  • The US Dollar may gain versus ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht and Philippine Peso after the Fed projected 2 rate hikes by the end of 2023. All eyes on US PCE data. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LaLVW8FFHI https://t.co/W7AHAcuZbO
  • 5 out of 9 Dow Jones sectors ended higher, with 43.3% of the index’s constituents closing in the green. Consumer discretionary (+1.27%) and materials (+0.62%) outperformed, whereas industrials (-0.25%) and communication services (-0.21%) trailed behind. https://t.co/iBLgt4PcYc
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (JUN) Actual: 58.4 Previous: 60.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-22
US Dollar May Splinter vs FX Majors as Markets Ponder Recession

US Dollar May Splinter vs FX Majors as Markets Ponder Recession

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
US Dollar May Splinter vs FX Majors as Markets Ponder Recession

US DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL

  • US Dollar up vs. commodity currencies, down vs. anti-risk FX as stocks drop
  • Financial markets may be looking past credit crunch risk, weighing recession
  • Tame economic docket likely to keep Covid-19 outbreak macro impact in focus

The handoff from April to May proved positive for the US Dollar. It snapped a seven-day losing streak against an average of its major counterparts, in a move that seemed to echo a risk-off turn in broader financial market sentiment. The bellwether S&P 500 stock index suffered its largest daily drawdown in a month, boosting the haven demand for the global reserve currency.

Dissecting the move reveals an interesting dynamic however. The Greenback rose against currencies attached to central banks with comparatively greater room to ease monetary policy – AUD and NZD, for example. It fell against those where borrowing costs are already negative, like the Yen and the Euro. This seems to rank performance along a “scope for rate cuts” spectrum.

US Dollar May Splinter vs FX Majors as Markets Ponder Recession

Chart of US Dollar vs G10 FX currencies, S&P 500 futures created with TradingView

These moves seem to imply a yields-minded market, despite the dour mood. That is a stark contrast to the all-out liquidation seen in March, when capital fled to the absolute liquidity of the US currency above nearly all else as the availability of cash suddenly looked suspect. This might mean that, with a credit crisis seemingly contained for now, a reckoning with the longer-term scars of Covid-19 is afoot.

If this is truly the case, a relatively tame economic calendar seems unlikely to interfere in the week ahead. Monetary policy announcements from the RBA and the Bank of England are likely to be most interesting for their assessments of the macro backdrop rather than any immediate changes in current policy. It ought to surprise nearly no one that April’s US jobs report will likely register as utterly abysmal.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES