News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/KG9k8BnyD6
  • Gold Price Forecast: Long-Term Yields May Keep XAU/USD on the Backfoot - https://t.co/YV1gkiTPrq #GOLD $GLD $XAUUSD https://t.co/oT1lIcChN6
  • 🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) Actual: 1.8% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.03%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 69.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rHzkW4zqv7
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/kIGn36WXO2
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.28% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/d2JGjMhNQn
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) due at 05:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.33% US 500: -0.54% FTSE 100: -0.54% France 40: -0.67% Germany 30: -0.81% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WVmqPR5R29
  • Risk trends are on the lam again with Nasdaq 100 threatening to usher the reversal, but I remain skeptical that fire will catch. Meanwhile, global 10yr yields are rising again, pulling gold down. Watch I'm watching: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/03/04/Nasdaq-Breakdown-Raises-Risk-Trend-Questions-Yields-Push-Dollar-and-Gold.html https://t.co/2RFnWOaXa4
  • 🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (FEB) Actual: 33.8 Previous: 29.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
US Dollar Ahead: EUR/USD Eyes FOMC & ECB Minutes, USD/CAD to CPI

US Dollar Ahead: EUR/USD Eyes FOMC & ECB Minutes, USD/CAD to CPI

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
DXY 2-Hour Price Chart

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • US Dollar depreciated on Jerome Powell and US-China trade deal hopes
  • FOMC minutes may weaken the Greenback as ECB minutes sink the Euro
  • USD may rise vs Canadian Dollar on CPI data, repricing in trade hopes

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

US Dollar Recap

The US Dollar largely underperformed against its major counterparts this past week. Most of its decline occurred during the end of last week on two fundamental developments. The first was testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Despite Mr Powell offering a favorable outlook on the economy, which can at times warrant the case for tightening, he maintained that current policy is appropriate. Local bond yields fell.

Then, White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow helped fuel speculation of a US-China trade deal, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to close at record highs. Risk appetite dented the need for safe-haven assets, such as the highly-liquid US Dollar. Meanwhile 2020 Fed rate cut bets saw a cautious rise. Expectations are evenly split for a 25bp reduction by June as of this past Friday.

US Dollar Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, ECB Minutes, Canadian CPI, Trade Talks

The local economic docket notably cools in the week ahead, with key event risk being the FOMC minutes from the October monetary policy announcement. That will cross the wires on Wednesday. There the US Dollar could be at risk if the report reiterates familiar language about how current benchmark lending rates are appropriate despite an improving outlook on the economy.

It may rise against the Euro on the ECB account of the October policy meeting. That will be released the next day and may reveal further details into the central bank’s reintroduction of quantitative easing that began this month. Keep a close eye for what could be cautious commentary about the economic outlook from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos and Executive Board Member Nathan Lane on Monday.

On Wednesday, USD/CAD volatility may be elevated by incoming Canadian CPI. While data is still tending to outperform relative to expectations in Canada, this has been by a shrinking margin. The US Dollar may rise against the Canadian Dollar if softer-than-expected CPI data underpins concerns from the BoC about the economic outlook. It remains one of the major central banks that has avoided cutting rates this year.

In aggregate, the US Dollar could see buying pressure rekindle should US-China trade talks head in the wrong direction despite rosy sentiment out of the former. US President Donald Trump has shown reluctance about unwinding tariffs against his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. A sudden repricing in trade deal bets could lead to aggressive market volatility and drive demand into the world’s reserve currency.

US Dollar Versus Risk Trends

USD Price Chart

Majors-Based US Dollar Index Created in TradingView

US Dollar Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES