We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • LIVE NOW: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will preview the upcoming week's main political themes and discuss their impact on financial markets https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 12:30 AM ET/4:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/zVJwqxhcGd
  • #JapaneseYen has made some gains as #USDJPY bumps up against tough resistance. However the pair is probably consolidating and, absent a surge in risk aversion, biased higher. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-jpy/2019/09/23/Japanese-Yen-Strengthens-But-US-Dollar-Bulls-Will-Probably-Step-Back-In.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Cottle&utm_campaign=twr
  • What are the key facts one must take into consideration in the earning season and why is it important for the #stock market outlook? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/tzAa2WClpv https://t.co/OMw9Xj5hOv
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will preview the upcoming week's main political themes and discuss their impact on financial markets https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.60% Oil - US Crude: 0.79% Gold: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/f6xT4Uo2tO
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.20% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/co2JkXN1A9
  • LIVE NOW: Join DailyFX Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak LIVE as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.08%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 89.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/spZkZaPsuM
  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: September Floor Back Under Fire - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aud-usd/2019/09/23/AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-September-Floor-Back-Under-Fire.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #AUDUSD #technicalanalysis
US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

2019-04-20 07:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

  • US Dollar may be buoyed by haven flows on exodus from risky assets
  • First-quarter US GDP, external data flow might inspire risk aversion
  • Dour tone in corporate earnings reports to reinforce defensive mood

Check out the latest US Dollar forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

The US Dollar looks likely to cement its position as a vehicle for safety-seeking capital flows in the week ahead. Mounting evidence of a downturn in domestic economic activity is likely to keep Fed policy locked in wait-and-see mode even as it sours risk appetite and stokes haven demand.

PMI surveys published Thursday put the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth at the weakest since September 2016. Next week’s GDP data is expected to confirm a slowdown in the first quarter. A print at 2 percent is expected but realized results may undershoot if the tenor of recent outcomes is sustained.

Meanwhile, external news-flow offers ample fodder for global slowdown speculation. The Bank of Canada will probably use the occasion of a policy announcement to worry aloud about downside risks. Incoming comments from UK Chancellor Hammond and SNB President Jordan may offer a similar message.

Turning to the data front, Germany’s IFO survey of business confidence and New Zealand trade statistics might add to the downbeat mood. Both countries are prodigious exporters and the drop in trade volumes starting around mid-2018 shows no signs of a meaningful recovery.

The first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season will continue to in tandem. Over a third of the companies making up the bellwether S&P 500 equity index are due to show results. Data from Bloomberg based on those outcomes recorded thus far points to the first period of contraction in three years.

Taken together, this seems likely to put markets in a defensive posture, with each consecutive reminder about the shaky macroeconomic backdrop helping to inspire de-risking. That might put a premium on the Greenback’s unrivaled liquidity, pushing it broadly higher.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Forecast - Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Crude Oil Forecast - Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data

British Pound Forecast - Will Sterling Stabilize with Brexit Risk in the Distance?

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.