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  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 56.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • $AUDNZD likely to attempt closing at a new 2021 low over the remaining 24 hours following the stellar New Zealand jobs report The December 2020 low has been further exposed at 1.0418 since July's #RBNZ rate decision New Zealand bond yields on the rise https://t.co/ipjwkSNt9n https://t.co/ncQX4hL8G3
  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3% https://t.co/G5Ejzl2H6L
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently https://t.co/XmzhuLXh1H
  • 🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) Actual: 4% Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
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  • The Nasdaq 100 may continue outperforming Dow Jones futures ahead as fears about global growth continue weighing on the 10-year Treasury yield ahead of NFPs. What are the risks? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/kADmxIfyHt https://t.co/VUltiTLch1
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Employment Change QoQ (Q2) due at 22:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
US Dollar Q2 Forecast: Dollar Either Principal Safe Haven or Falling Star

US Dollar Q2 Forecast: Dollar Either Principal Safe Haven or Falling Star

One of the greater weights against the US currency to open 2019 – even though it seemed to hold its buoyancy – was the unmistakable dimming in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy guidance. Last year, the world’s largest central bank hiked its benchmark rate range three times, lifting the rate to a 2.25-2.50 percent spread. That was a ‘gradual’ pace in historical terms; but in the context of the global market, it was remarkable. No other major policy group was normalizing monetary policy so consistently.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart: Ascending Triangle Builds into Q2

US Dollar Q2 Forecast: Dollar Either Principal Safe Haven or Falling Star

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Taking a step back on the US Dollar’s chart can provide some additional and perhaps usable context to this current bout of congestion. The US Dollar’s bearish 2017 trend finally caught support around February of last year; and at that point, a topside rally started that ran into the summer, with sellers showing up around the confluent area of support/resistance around 95.86-96.00.

See the complete Q2’19 Dollar forecast as well as forecasts for the other major currencies, equities, Gold, and Oil.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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