We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are the trading lessons every #forex trader should learn when diving into the forex market? Get your free guide here: https://t.co/w77TGnEVwP https://t.co/m5ZMY4ao6F
  • The New York #forex session is one of the most liquid #forextrading sessions. Want to learn to trade in this session? Read up! https://t.co/qDNTKLVhFa https://t.co/tZetcS5Ev7
  • #DidYouKnow a #Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/roWhofPtMb
  • $USD price action has edged roughly 1.5% lower since touching year-to-date highs earlier this month and the recent stretch of weakness jeopardizes the US Dollar’s bullish trend. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/10/13/usd-price-us-dollar-technical-forecast-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-usdcad.html
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇮🇳 World Bank Says #India Faces Severe Slowdown, Cuts GDP Forecast - Bloomberg *India’s gross domestic product growth seen a…
  • Why are Bollinger Bands @bbands and #forex such a good combo? Because forex is a form of pairs trading, each transaction involving a long position in one currency and a short position in another. Find out how you can use it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZuN2xl5GIw https://t.co/G0ByyTvBnT
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Bf4KXjRYzR
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within the financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy within a trading system can enhance a trader’s market analysis technique. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/4mSc3NB4qM
  • Currency markets may be battered by breakneck volatility if a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a collapse in the fragile market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/KfjjtaXs7b https://t.co/FbNC12Nq6A
  • The $GBP will be in for a volatile week ahead of critical talks at the EU-UK summit as the October 31 deadline approaches. Will policymakers be able to avoid a no-deal #Brexit? Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/r7eAf885V6 https://t.co/sqqRqnrPYa
US Dollar May Retreat as Rally Struggles to Find Fresh Fodder

US Dollar May Retreat as Rally Struggles to Find Fresh Fodder

2018-08-03 20:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

DXY

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: NEUTRAL

Dollar Talking Points:

  • US Dollar accelerated upward after hawkish FOMC policy decision
  • July’s CPI data expected to reinforce status-quo Fed rate hike view
  • Absence of new near-term catalysts may open the door for a pullback

See the latest US Dollar forecast learn what will drive prices in the third quarter!

The US Dollar accelerated upward last week, powered by a hawkish Fed monetary policy announcement (as expected). Central bank officials upgraded their assessment of overall growth, employment and inflation to signal that two more rate hikes are probably on the docket before year-end.

On the data front, the spotlight now turns to July’s CPI report. The headline and core inflation measures are expected to register unchanged from the prior month at 2.9 and 2.3 percent on-year respectively. Such results would be broadly consistent with the Fed’s confident posture.

While this is supportive of the greenback’s overall uptrend, it may fall short of offering sufficient impetus to drive near-term gains. Indeed, even after last week’s hawkish FOMC statement, the priced-in probability of a December hike barely budged from 60 percent.

This hints the US unit may need more than just reinforcement of the status quo to sustain upward momentum. On-going trade war tensions between Washington and Beijing may offer a catalyst. If escalation triggers risk aversion, the currency’s unrivaled liquidity may re-establish support from haven-seeking capital flows.

External developments ought to be kept in mind as well. Crosscurrents following the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions via AUD/USD and NZD/USD might echo as drivers of USD more broadly in the absence of other influences. Dovish outcomes on both fronts might mean such forces are nominally helpful.

These considerations aside, the absence of fresh fodder locally might translate into a consolidative tone. CFTC positioning data reveals a steep build in speculative net-long US Dollar exposure recently, opening the door for profit-taking that breaks the currency’s four-week winning streak.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.