We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • European Opening Calls From IG #FTSE 7234 -0.39% #DAX 13096 -0.47% #CAC 5868 -0.45% #MIB 23214 -0.59% #IBEX 9183 -0.46% #STOXX 3667 -0.45%
  • The $CAD may fall if local CPI and retail sales data adds fuel Bank of Canada easing bets. Where do AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and GBP/CAD stand ahead of the Canadian data? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/oIDWTbIFu9 https://t.co/o1uZsKpHRs
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.89%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 80.64%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HehGdVZjiP
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0SmnI3T0hU
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.20% US 500: -0.22% France 40: -0.61% Germany 30: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Yj4Ut2iXfP
  • The $AUD seems to be biased lower against its US counterpart despite sellers’ recent struggle to build lasting bearish momentum. Get your AUD/USD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/8yt9QURlhk https://t.co/4zKJtvpEAg
  • The $JPY has posted some rare gains against the US Dollar on its daily chart, but important channel support still holds on an intraday basis. Keep a close eye on it now. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/ReMGzu6OjP https://t.co/3ZYnOKnDp5
  • 🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (SEP), Actual: 1.5% Expected: 1.5% Previous: 0.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-21
  • Heads up: Japan’s All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (SEP) is due at 4:30 GMT (15 min) Est: 1.5% Previous: 0.0% #JPY
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (SEP) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.5% Previous: 0.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-21
US Dollar May Extend Advance as Fed Dials Up Hawkish Rhetoric

US Dollar May Extend Advance as Fed Dials Up Hawkish Rhetoric

2018-07-27 22:02:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
US Dollar May Extend Advance as Fed Dials Up Hawkish Rhetoric

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR THE US DOLLAR: BULLISH

  • US Dollar up for third week on GDP data, Trump/Junker meeting
  • Incoming data flow to put inflation on target, job growth on trend
  • FOMC statement may dial up hawkish tone after Trump intrusion

See the latest US Dollar forecast learn what will drive prices in the third quarter!

The US Dollar managed a third consecutive week of tepid gains. US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker struck a deal avoiding trade war escalation, as expected. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP data put the annualized growth rate at the highest in close to four years (albeit a hair lower than economists predicted).

The spotlight turns back to monetary policy in the week ahead as the FOMC rate-setting committee issues a policy announcement and a raft of top-tier statistical releases crosses the wires. PCE data is expected to put core inflation at the target 2 percent on-year for a second month. Separately, July’s jobs report is expected to bring another near-200k rise in payrolls while wages grow at a brisk rate of 2.7 percent.

For their part, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company are widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged this time having tightened further in June. The priced-in probability of a status-quo result implied by futures markets is 98.8 percent. That puts the spotlight on the statement accompanying the announcement as traders look for clues signaling the central bank might deliver four hikes in 2018.

Market expectations are heavily skewed in favor of a rate hike in September, putting the likelihood of such an outcome at 81.3 percent. That would mark the third increase this year. The chance for a fourth is currently at 59.1 percent. While that marks a notable hawkish shift in recent weeks, it is still only just a bit better than even and leaves ample room for the building of greater conviction to drive the US Dollar upward.

To that end, the central bank may be particularly motivated to dial hawkish rhetoric this time. The latest data flow would make such a position entirely understandable, giving policymakers the cover needed to assert their independence after President Trump complained aloud about tightening efforts. Fed officials may now feel the need for a bit of indirect pushback to burnish their credibility.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.