News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here: https://t.co/xngExEdFdu https://t.co/kqpJ6oGXgt
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/F4dXbUzU3o https://t.co/G0ZWWVtSrZ
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfIZNKr https://t.co/5js6tWk5bY
  • The Euro has regained lost ground against its major counterparts recently. Are further gains in the offing or is this just a short-term countertrend correction? EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD key levels. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/Z71MZEIJWC https://t.co/YAr1kN4eKd
  • Coinbase’s impending initial public offering could provide the necessary fuel for Bitcoin to push to fresh record highs in the coming days. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/twdu0zqmIM https://t.co/72HRMZlKUn
  • The Swiss Franc has positioned itself against key levels versus the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Euro over the past week. Where next for AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and EUR/CHF? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/CrtQGzvWnm https://t.co/j5Zjn5zY0D
  • (Weekly Fundy) Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD May Rise as Dovish Fed Calms Yields, US Dollar $AUDUSD #AUD #USD #Bonds #Fed https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/04/17/Australian-Dollar-Forecast-AUDUSD-May-Rise-as-Dovish-Fed-Calms-Yields-US-Dollar.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/gQDr5fBosb
  • The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc may outperform the US Dollar amid rising long bets in USD/JPY and USD/CHF. But, broader uptrends since January could still remain in play. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Qpeuuyrxhj https://t.co/EfgW9aj7wo
  • Bitcoin struggled to maintain a push into record highs and appears to be vulnerable to a near-term pullback. Litecoin and Ethereum saw more aggressive gains, will their momentum accelerate? Get your $btc market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/f5d7qs5j3z https://t.co/xxMX4YFKCC
  • The US Dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable to ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/THB breaching key support. USD/IDR is eyeing a Rising Wedge, USD/PHP may face February lows. Get your $USD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7rSQzu0sx9 https://t.co/5mmTfs00lT
USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals - The Battle Continues

USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals - The Battle Continues

Nick Cawley, Strategist
USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals - The Battle Continues

Fundamental Forecast for USD: Neutral

US Dollar Talking Points:

  • Interest rate hikes and expectations underpin the US dollar.
  • US President Trump’s global trade war campaign dulls the greenback’s allure.

The DailyFX Q3 US Dollar Forecast is available to download.

We move to neutral on the US dollar this week based purely on the current strength of the US economy but note that further upside in the currency may be dampened as US President Donald Trump continues to ratchet up his ‘America First’ trade war campaign. The recent announcement of additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports has done little to ease market nerves, while President Trump’s obvious annoyance with Germany’s huge trade surplus is causing concern within the European Union. Reciprocal trade action by both China and the EU will weigh on the US economy although it will take months before their effects are registered or felt.

Trade War Primers and Walk Throughs – Recommended Reading:

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the Dollar

A War to Trade More, Not Less - What’s Behind US-China Tariffs

While the trade war tit-for-tat continues, the US economy remains robust allowing the Fed to continue normalizing monetary policy by raising interest rates further. Recent higher-than-expected inflation prints, coupled with unemployment at a record low should confirm another two 0.25% rate hikes this year (making a total of four or 1%) with three more hikes penciled in for next year. While Q1 annualized GDP growth of 2% may have missed expectations of 2.2%, the economic boost from the President’s tax cut program will continue to help the economy expand.

Looking Ahead to Next Week (w/c Monday July 16)

The two standouts on the economic calendar come early in the week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday the main focus for traders. In an interview on Thursday, Powell said that the US economy is ‘in a good place from a cyclical standpoint close to maximum employment and stable prices targets’. He warned however that the recent trade war escalation could weigh on the current strength of the economy.

USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals - The Battle Continues

DailyFX Economic Calendar for the week ahead.

US Dollar Index Probing the 200-Day Moving Average – Weekly Chart

USD: Trade Wars vs Strong Economic Fundamentals - The Battle Continues

USD Technical Analysis: DXY at Familiar Resistance Yet Again, Will it Hold?

In summation, the US dollar remains strong and will likely push further ahead although the path higher may be bumpy. Risk/reward suggests that dip-buying the USD against weaker counterparts remains the best way forward and, on the flip side, that short-selling the greenback may prove expensive.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES