News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true.Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/xqbUxwWgTZ
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/Gi8LHCT5sB
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here: https://t.co/AKmlmaAZBS https://t.co/FFmRYyx4ou
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/r7aJb4qpqc
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/fIGDaDW21V
  • ...even more incredible is net speculative futures positioning in $EURUSD, rounding off from a record net long position...and it hasn't even cleared 1.20... https://t.co/SfyYTMTT1x
  • Net speculative futures positioning in the Dollar (here overlaid with the $DXY) has pushed to extreme levels commensurate to the levels in Oct 2017 and April 2018 https://t.co/JqHGgVUCqc
  • The $SPX closed below the 50-day moving average Friday. The first time it has done so in 103 trading days. The 'technical' end of an exceptional run: https://t.co/HUn5Q6JmlK
  • Despite recent weakness in the #SP500, the growth-linked New Zealand Dollar has been gaining momentum ahead of the #RBNZ next week Could this trend continue, or will $NZDUSD capitulate to the mercy of risk trends? Check out my fundamental outlook - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/nzd/2020/09/19/New-Zealand-Dollar-Outlook-NZDUSD-May-Rise-on-RBNZ-Watch-SP-500.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/34vcR4fjpT
  • RT @FxWestwater: #Copper rose to a fresh multi-year high as Chinese demand and supply-side issues continue to support price action amid a l…
US Dollar Looks to Yellen Speech to Revive Upward Momentum

US Dollar Looks to Yellen Speech to Revive Upward Momentum

2017-10-14 03:25:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
US Dollar Looks to Yellen Speech to Revive Upward Momentum

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Bullish

  • US Dollar stung by timid FOMC minutes, underwhelming CPI data
  • Overall fundamental backdrop still seems unmistakably supportive
  • Yellen speech favoring preemptive tightening may revive USD rally

Want to see our US Dollar forecast for the entire fourth quarter? Get it here!

The US Dollar spent last week firmly on the defensive as traders chopped away at gains scored on the back of firming Fed rate hike expectations since mid-September. Minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting revealed widespread concern about reflation prospects that were seemingly reinforced by disappointing CPI statistics published Friday.

Fed Funds futures imply the priced-in probability of a rate increase at the policy-setting committee’s last meeting in December at 73.3 percent. That is down from 78.5 percent a week ago. However, it is also miles ahead of the 38.9 percent chance that traders assigned to such a scenario one month ago. This speaks to an underlying fundamental backdrop that is more supportive than last week’s performance implies.

The week ahead brings plenty of stateside economic data but most of what is on offer is unlikely to make or break monetary policy expectations. The Fed’s Beige Book regional economic conditions survey is perhaps the lone exception. If that translates seems to suggest that the forces holding back inflation are dissipating as FOMC hawks have argued, the greenback may enjoy a fillip.

It ought to be commentary from Fed officials that proves most potent however, with a speech from Chair Janet Yellen understandably in the spotlight. The central bank chief has made no secret of her preference for continuing to scale back stimulus. More of the same is likely this time around, with emphasis on the need to pre-empt excessive price growth signaling a rate hike in December is all but assured.

New York and San Francisco Fed presidents Bill Dudley and John Williams – influential members of the FOMC’s centrist core and Yellen’s close confidants – have offered some telling commentary in recent weeks. Both have suggested that preventing inflation overshoot means tightening along the way toward reaching the 2 percent target instead of waiting for it to be realized.

Yellen might offer a preview of Friday’s tone at a G-30 panel with colleagues from the PBOC, the BOJ and the ECB over the weekend. Dudley is also scheduled to speak mid-week and might offer further insight. If all of this sets separates conviction in a December rate increase from recent data missteps and any disappointments yet to happen in the next 6 weeks, the US Dollar is likely to soar anew.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES