News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Business Confidence (JUN) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 58.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-14
  • Technical Levels: #Dollar, #Sterling, #Loonie, #Gold, #Bitcoin, #Oil and more! (Webinar Archive) - https://t.co/0ztuS6u8z7
  • Poll: With volatility deflating across the financial system, left to wonder what phase of the market cycle we are in currently. What stage do you think we are in right now? (https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/02/05/Market-cycle-phases.html)
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.28% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.19% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rKGivnA7az
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.37% France 40: 0.32% Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.19% Wall Street: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/QYj0laANXU
  • ECB's Villeroy says stimulus will be at least as prolonged as Fed's
  • This week opens to anticipation for Wednesday's FOMC decision, but conditions may charge short-term volatility. DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter discuss for Monday! https://t.co/iOgZWpiFE5
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.92% Silver: 0.11% Gold: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lDnyXGE5LI
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 Business Confidence (JUN) due at 14:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 58.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-14
  • Gold has rallied nearly 1.0 percent over the past half hour, retracing approximately two-thirds of the day's full bearish move that nearly return to the 200-day simple moving average at 1841
US Dollar Aims to Extend Advance But Politics Threaten Progress

US Dollar Aims to Extend Advance But Politics Threaten Progress

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
US Dollar Aims to Extend Advance But Politics Threaten Progress

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Bullish

  • US Dollar at two-month highs on swelling Fed rate hike speculation
  • CPI rise may fuel further gains, FOMC minutes unlikely to surprise
  • Politics a threat on NAFTA negotiations, Trump’s Iran deal speech

Prepare to trade what’s next for the US Dollar. Join our weekly cross-market outlook webinar!

The US Dollar has mounted a spirited recovery amid firming Fed rate hike prospects over the past two weeks. The currency is now trading within a hair two-month highs against an average of its major G10 FX counterparts. The probability of a December rate hike implied in Fed Funds futures now stands at 78.5 percent having been just 22 percent a month ago.

The week ahead offers plenty of fodder for continued speculation. Minutes from September’s FOMC meeting will help clarify policymakers’ thinking but a wealth of commentary since the sit-down has already established a clearly hawkish bias. That stance is by no means unanimous, but the driving core of the rate-setting committee seems to buy the case for on-coming reflation and the resulting need to tighten.

That seems to put single out September’s CPI report as the pivotal bit of event risk on the docket. The headline inflation rate is seen rising to 2.3 percent, the highest in six months. Steady improvement in US economic news-flow relative to forecasts since mid-June and September’s explosive jump in wage growth (2.9 percent on-year, the highest since May 2009) open the door for an upside surprise.

With that said, the treat that politics will distract investors from economic fundamentals remains ever-present. Negotiators from the US, Canada and Mexico will convene for the fourth round of talks to reforming NAFTA. US President Trump has mused about the process’ likely failure. It is unclear whether this was tactical posturing, performance art for the domestic audience, or genuine opposition.

Trump is also due to give a speech on the fate US policy toward Iran. Suspicion is swelling that the address will precede a move to “decertify” an Obama-era accord with Tehran exchanging sanctions relief for the reduction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. If this proves to be the case, Congress would have 60 days to fast-track re-imposing sanctions, which would probably see the agreement fall apart entirely.

To the extent that incoming headlines make markets genuinely concerned about the economic fallout from a breakdown of NAFTA and/or from tearing up the Iran nuclear deal, resulting risk aversion might cool Fed rate hike bets. Conclusively negative outcomes are unlikely even in the worst case scenario however: trade negotiations may stretch on and Congress may not re-establish previously relaxed sanctions.

In fact, if the political landscape turns truly dire and produces aggressively risk-off dynamics, there is an argument to be made for US Dollar gains as the benchmark unit reclaims its haven appeal. On balance, this suggests that – despite some noteworthy potential pitfalls – the path of least resistance for the greenback continues to favor the upside.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES