News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here: https://t.co/SIpslvhX0J https://t.co/jVxcE1QUBs
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here: https://t.co/MTc4tUDD6c https://t.co/DOQ6tyzep9
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/WQLZ1X7gIY
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level https://t.co/LkEyRxFhnq
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
US Dollar Looks Outward for Direction Cues as Fed Outlook Firms

US Dollar Looks Outward for Direction Cues as Fed Outlook Firms

2017-05-06 03:36:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
US Dollar Looks Outward for Direction Cues as Fed Outlook Firms

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

  • US Dollar shrugs at upbeat jobs data as Fed outlook settles
  • Flood of US news may be overshadowed by external forces
  • G7 and EU meetings, RBNZ and BOE rate decisions ahead

What will shape US Dollar trends through mid-year? See our Q2 forecast to find out!

The US Dollar barely budged as April’s employment report showed payrolls growth that topped consensus forecasts and a jobless rate that unexpectedly fell to the lowest in a decade. The currency’s muted response seems understandable. Futures markets already priced in the probability that the Fed will raise rates next month at 94 percent before the release, so there was little room for upbeat jobs numbers to move the needle.

This may prove telling in the week ahead. The economic calendar is loaded with high-profile event risk. The PPI and CPI measures of inflation, retail sales statistics, and the May edition of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey are all set to cross the wires. The Fed-speak docket is also busy, with eight policymakers scheduled to give ten separate speeches over five days (some will speak twice).

This flood of fundamental news-flow might normally be expected to stoke substantial volatility. Timid price action following the payrolls print hints that may not be the case this time around. The Fed dismissed the first-quarter slowdown in US growth as “transitory”, so the bar for disappointment big enough to alter policy bets is extraordinarily high. Alternatively, upbeat results would just confirm what traders already know.

This leaves the greenback rudderless and prone to external influence. Emmanuel Macron is widely expected to win France’s presidential election runoff but the outcome may still stoke Euro volatility. A large-enough swing in EUR/USD may echo for the US currency more broadly. Rate calls in the UK and New Zealand, an EU ambassadors’ Brexit strategy meeting and a G7 finance ministers’ summit may also factor in.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES