We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/bQLBwqrzPU
  • The Federal Reserve has made a powerful statement about its commitment to shoring up offshore $USD funding markets through the #coronavirus spread. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/fLZjxjr4L9 https://t.co/Ao7XeiY7wS
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.84% France 40: 0.80% Wall Street: -0.23% US 500: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aHuwHMbNl1
  • RT @DanielGMoss: $SPX Rising wedge formation signals looming reversal as price attempts to breach 2009 uptrend support-turned-resistance…
  • The US Dollar appears to be back on the offensive against ASEAN FX such as the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. The Philippine Peso gained. What does USD face from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/U8VGdJPIST https://t.co/F8pRQwz1rR
  • (ASEAN Technical Outlook) The US #Dollar fell against #ASEAN FX such as $USDSGD, $USDPHP, $USDMYR and $USDIDR. Chart patterns are brewing like a Bullish Pennant, Descending Triangle and Falling Wedge #USD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2020/04/09/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-USDSGD-USDPHP-USDMYR-USDIDR.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/J7j7Kpvyx4
  • My trading video for today: 'S&P 500 Extends Bullish Gaps, Oil Awaits #OPEC, A Wave of Data Before Holiday' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/04/09/SP-500-Extends-Bullish-Gaps-Oil-Awaits-OPEC-A-Wave-of-Data-Before-Holiday.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9
  • The #Euro and crude #oil prices will be at the mercy of ongoing OPEC+ and Eurozone negotiations as members from each respective group attempt to reach a consensus on policy. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/PCH5bzb3WQ https://t.co/4IWL37kuFR
  • The $USD suddenly seems scarce amid the #coronavirus outbreak. That threatens short-term financing underpinning global supply chains, despite the Fed’s epic efforts. Get your US Dollar market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/D2p2Vl2ORK https://t.co/dLfjOEe7Px
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 2.03% Silver: 0.88% Gold: 0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/PsYoOAnuta
US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

2017-01-28 05:32:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

  • Top-tier US economic data, FOMC expected to be relatively upbeat
  • Lingering fiscal policy uncertainty may frustrate US Dollar recovery
  • Prices may be more sensitive to negative vs. positive data outcomes

Has the US Dollar matched our forecast so far in the first quarter of 2017? Find out here!

The week ahead brings with it the return of heavy-duty economic event risk. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation data, the ISM manufacturing activity survey and January’s jobs report are just the standouts on the data front. In the midst of all this, the rate-setting FOMC committee will deliver an update on its policy stance.

If economists’ expectations are broadly borne out, the statistics round-up will be relatively flattering. The core price growth rate will inch closer to the 2 percent target, the pace of manufacturing activity growth will quicken, and payrolls will swell by a larger number than in December.

This would fall broadly in line with the trend in US economic data outcomes, which have tended to outperform consensus forecasts in recent weeks. Against such a backdrop, it seems likely that the Fed will stick to a cautiously hawkish message in its policy statement.

At face value, this seems like a healthy recipe for US Dollar gains. The landscape is severely complicated by lingering uncertainty about US fiscal policy however. Indeed, “Trump-watching” has seemingly become an all-consuming activity for the financial markets.

This makes sense. Prickly rhetoric on trade relations, for example – even if it is swiftly walked back – can spook traders and stoke kneejerk volatility that affects the real economy. For its part, the Fed has said that its policy path depends on the impact of the US President’s lofty plans.

The fundamental evidence seemingly points to a steady US economy that is broadly in the same place as the last time Janet Yellen and company sat down for policy meeting. Confirming as much may do little to assuage concerns that this relatively rosy status quo will not be shattered by a sharp pivot on the fiscal side.

With that in mind, the threat posed by headline risk remains acute and the near-term outlook for the US Dollar continues to be clouded. On balance, this makes the currency asymmetrically more responsive to negative versus positive surprises on the news-flow front.

Upbeat data and a gently optimistic Fed may be just enough to counterbalance leery investors’ itch to scale back exposure to the so-called “Trump trade”. Speculative net-long USD bets fell to the lowest in three months last week. A soft patch on the data docket may amplify existing outflow pressure however.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.