News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT for insight on London #FX and #CFD trading. Register here: https://t.co/AoM3UvLtcF https://t.co/YUu7Pwos43
  • 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate (NOV) Actual: 90.7 Expected: 90.1 Previous: 92.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-24
  • Brush up your knowledge on #tradewars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/1MAj9f6meB
  • 🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate (NOV) Actual: 90.7 Expected: 90.1 Previous: 92.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-24
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.97%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/jGEHciMOxY
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Ifo Business Climate (NOV) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 90.1 Previous: 92.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-24
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.90% Gold: -0.56% Silver: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BVI5sIyKr7
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/rouvUq7T9R
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.90% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.89% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.37% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.25% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.21% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/9rLTlEAVAy
  • Risk-on tilt to kick-off the European trading session Haven-associated $USD and $JPY extending declines while the cyclically sensitive $AUDUSD soars to multi-month highs European equity markets aiming higher #DAX30 - +0.55% #EUStoxx50 - +0.52% #FTSE100 - +0.55%
US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

2017-01-28 05:32:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
US Dollar Still in Trump Watch Mode as FOMC, Key Data Loom

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

  • Top-tier US economic data, FOMC expected to be relatively upbeat
  • Lingering fiscal policy uncertainty may frustrate US Dollar recovery
  • Prices may be more sensitive to negative vs. positive data outcomes

Has the US Dollar matched our forecast so far in the first quarter of 2017? Find out here!

The week ahead brings with it the return of heavy-duty economic event risk. The Fed’s favored PCE inflation data, the ISM manufacturing activity survey and January’s jobs report are just the standouts on the data front. In the midst of all this, the rate-setting FOMC committee will deliver an update on its policy stance.

If economists’ expectations are broadly borne out, the statistics round-up will be relatively flattering. The core price growth rate will inch closer to the 2 percent target, the pace of manufacturing activity growth will quicken, and payrolls will swell by a larger number than in December.

This would fall broadly in line with the trend in US economic data outcomes, which have tended to outperform consensus forecasts in recent weeks. Against such a backdrop, it seems likely that the Fed will stick to a cautiously hawkish message in its policy statement.

At face value, this seems like a healthy recipe for US Dollar gains. The landscape is severely complicated by lingering uncertainty about US fiscal policy however. Indeed, “Trump-watching” has seemingly become an all-consuming activity for the financial markets.

This makes sense. Prickly rhetoric on trade relations, for example – even if it is swiftly walked back – can spook traders and stoke kneejerk volatility that affects the real economy. For its part, the Fed has said that its policy path depends on the impact of the US President’s lofty plans.

The fundamental evidence seemingly points to a steady US economy that is broadly in the same place as the last time Janet Yellen and company sat down for policy meeting. Confirming as much may do little to assuage concerns that this relatively rosy status quo will not be shattered by a sharp pivot on the fiscal side.

With that in mind, the threat posed by headline risk remains acute and the near-term outlook for the US Dollar continues to be clouded. On balance, this makes the currency asymmetrically more responsive to negative versus positive surprises on the news-flow front.

Upbeat data and a gently optimistic Fed may be just enough to counterbalance leery investors’ itch to scale back exposure to the so-called “Trump trade”. Speculative net-long USD bets fell to the lowest in three months last week. A soft patch on the data docket may amplify existing outflow pressure however.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES