News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/POsnWwTmER
  • Speculative stubbornness continues to hold back emergent fears like inflation and central bank moderation, but no certain of progress on that battle this week. While $NDX, $BTCUSD and Pound are on my radar, #Dollar tops my watch list: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/05/15/Dollar-Outlook-Throttled-by-Both-Risk-Rebound-and-Curbed-Inflation-Concerns.html https://t.co/aYjyvQzhIA
  • AUD/USD remains range-bound but trend potential exists elsewhere in pairs such as AUD/JPY or AUD/CAD. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bppORO1NEg https://t.co/6mXqAOrl9H
  • What are some technical and fundamental factors affecting the equities market? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/YQG1aaIT8C #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/oOyN7fUaC6
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may drag on the price of gold as the central bank appears to be in no rush to switch gears. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/2EvNplObIk https://t.co/hhEAnqhAEu
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/gNiVpWrd1p
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/4zEwS7mFJE
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/nB2f5m56nq
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/Q0yRRpMpPX
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/pSeSiNnmHe
US Dollar at Risk as Traders Cut Exposure Amid Information Vacuum

US Dollar at Risk as Traders Cut Exposure Amid Information Vacuum

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
US Dollar at Risk as Traders Cut Exposure Amid Information Vacuum

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral

  • US Dollar at risk of kneejerk volatility as markets struggle to form outlook
  • Murky fiscal policy may limit market-moving potential of 4Q US GDP data
  • Information vacuum may encourage profit-taking on long USD exposure

Where will the US Dollar go in the first quarter of 2017? Get our forecast here!

A mostly thin economic calendar leaves the US Dollar to ponder the implications of a still-murky fiscal policy of newly-minted President Donald Trump in the week ahead. The promise of generous stimulus initially stoked bets on faster growth and inflation, sending shares higher alongside the greenback as investors foresaw richer earnings and a steeper Fed rate hike cycle. The absence of details has soured optimism however and the currency has been mostly on the defensive since the calendar turned to 2017.

Big-ticket fundamental news-flow does not enter the picture until Friday, when market participants will get their first look at fourth quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth rate is expected to have slowed to 2.2 percent in the final three months of the year, down from 3.5 percent in the preceding period. Robust improvement in US data outcomes relative to consensus forecasts over the same period suggests analysts may be underestimating the economy’s vigor, opening the door for an upside surprise.

Under normal circumstances, such a result might’ve encouraged bets on a more hawkish Fed and sent the US currency upward. It seems unlikely that the central bank will do anything but wait until there is greater clarity about where the White House is steering however. Indeed, FOMC policymakers including Chair Yellen have consistently stressed that much for their outlook depends on the impact of whatever fiscal program Mr Trump pursues. This may mean that the GDP release loses much of its market-moving might.

This makes the US unit vulnerable to kneejerk volatility as markets jump from one headline to the next, attempting to divine direction. If price action so far this year is telling, investors faced with such a backdrop prefer to scale back exposure and wait for greater clarity from the sidelines before committing one way or another. With net speculative long USD exposure still at the highest in over a year (according to CFTC data), ample room for profit-taking remains. This hints that the path of least resistance leads downward.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES