News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min)
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 1.10% Silver: 0.64% Oil - US Crude: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via
  • what a day for stonks $SPX $SPY judging by the way $ES started trading when futes opened last night, I thought we'd be dealing with a nasty situation Not so, ~90 handles of rip off the lows Price now testing resistance at the trendline drawn from pandemic lows
  • USD overextended, support on pullbacks expected.Tough hurdles ahead on EUR/USD recovery. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 86.42%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 71.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.80% US 500: 1.40% FTSE 100: 0.33% France 40: 0.30% Germany 30: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via
  • Here is the $DXY Dollar Index overlaid with an inverted Nasdaq 100 and the 20-day rolling correlation below it. Is this just a 'risk asset' vs 'safe haven' relationship or are the underlying fundamental considerations adding up to something that looks like it?
  • Technical Levels: US #Dollar, Euro, #Sterling, #Loonie, #Gold & #Bitcoin -
  • NY Fed accepts $765.1 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
  • Amazon’s annual Prime Day event runs from June 21 to June 22 this year The retailer has created an event that sees its sales surpass Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
Dollar Trend at Risk and Volatility High Following FOMC Meeting

Dollar Trend at Risk and Volatility High Following FOMC Meeting

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Dollar Trend at Risk and Volatility High Following FOMC Meeting

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Neutral

  • Though the FOMC removed its ‘patient’ term – interrupted as a cue for a possible June hike – the Dollar slipped
  • Fed Fund futures now see the first rate hike not until November (there are meetings on Oct 28 and Dec 16)
  • Sign up for a free trial of DailyFX-Plus to have access to Trading Q&A's, trading signals and much more!

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this past week certainly set off fireworks in the financial market. Yet, the outcome didn’t follow the simple path rate watchers would have expected. Now, with volatility further magnified; we find the Dollar wavering on its record-breaking, eight-month bull trend. Did the market overshoot on its speculative forecast for the Greenback before the central bank clarified its position – either pricing in a faster pace than was reasonable or perhaps pushing more premium than just the monetary policy differential would confer? Have the speculative ‘weak hands’ already been flushed from the system? And, will risk trends start to contribute to the currency's fundamental picture in the near future?

Looking back at the Fed meet this past week, there weren’t many ‘surprises’. The headlines were focusing in particularly on whether the group would include or strike the term ‘patient’ in reference to their timing for normalizing monetary policy. It was popularly understood that the word was equivalent to a more than three-month time frame before the central bank would consider a rate hike. Having been removed, the ‘mid-2015’ (some say June) first rate hike is more probable.

Another meaningful change was the downgrade in growth, inflation and interest rate forecasts. In their updated forecasts, the Committee lowered a the 2015 GDP view to 2.3 – 2.7 percent (from 2.6 – 3.0), the 2015 inflation range to 0.6 – 0.8 percent (from 1.0 to 1.6) and December’s expected benchmark rate level to 0.625 percent (from 1.125). These are significant changes that could lower the ‘curve’ (or projected pace of tightening), but there was limited speculation of a swift pace to begin with. Furthermore, the moderation in this data does little to offset the communication effort by the Fed to acclimatize the market to an approaching hike. And yet, timing of the first hike assessed by Fed Funds futures was pushed even further back, to November.

The Dollar’s waffle after the policy update is likely a flush of an excessive market exposure. We’ve seen the currency far outpace other markets that are theoretically connected to rate forecasts (Treasury yields, Fed Fund futures, monetary markets). Having established such a remarkable and obvious trend, it is likely speculative interests that fell outside of the fundamental rational were drawn in. With the policy update, those focused on short-term momentum were easily shaken. The question is whether the excess has been worked from the market. Wednesday’s tumble was severe in both price and volume, but it didn’t even break the USDollar’s 8-month trend.

There is likely a large pocket of tactical traders who would quickly abandon the Dollar long view should it slip further or even stall for an extended period. Yet, despite the risk of a short-term long squeeze, the fundamental backdrop would still support the medium-term bullish lean for the currency. Whether the Fed realizes a hike in June or October, its hawkish view – much less its timing – is far more incisive than its counterparts.

What is perhaps even more remarkable from this past week, was the swell in risk appetite following the Fed decision. Even a delay to the start of a tightening regime still clarifies the central bank’s ability and intention to raise rates. That reverses a course of years of increasing accommodation to draw risk out of the market and encourage investing. Yet, to a market with an increasingly shorter time frame for positioning, it offers a quick opportunity. The trouble is, what will the mentality be after that speculative swing is over? For milestones to gauge policy and risk trends moving forward; watch event risk such as the CPI data, the laundry list of Fed Speeches (including Yellen’s address on Friday) as well as international topics – like Greece’s financial problems.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.