News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.99%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Article and webinar recording can be found here -
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.42% Germany 30: -0.43% France 40: -0.49% View the performance of all markets via
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
  • $NDX extends intraday losses as fears over rising yields continue to haunt high-flying equities
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.16% Gold: -1.47% Silver: -2.30% View the performance of all markets via
  • This smells like a head-and-shoulders pattern from the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) but we don't see the same picture from the S&P 500, Dow or Russell 2000
  • Lot's of things down today, but know what isn't? Yup, longer-term #Treasury yields An average of the 10Y and 30Y having best day in about a week = portfolio rebalancing play still front and center Fed's Evans expressed little concern about yields
  • - Non-labor input costs rose moderately, particularly steel and lumber prices - Rising costs attributed to strong demand and supply chain issues - Several districts anticipate modest price increases over the next several months
US Dollar Fails to Break Despite Stellar NFPs. Where are the Trades?

US Dollar Fails to Break Despite Stellar NFPs. Where are the Trades?

David Rodriguez, Head of Product
US Dollar Fails to Break Despite Stellar NFPs. Where are the Trades?

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Bullish

- US Nonfarm Payrolls report beats all expectations, sends US Dollar higher

- Is the Dollar bounce a lasting one? Extreme sentiment suggests it is

- Watch the volume on dollar-based majors with the release of NFPS using the FXCM Real Volume indicator

The Dollar tumbled to fresh yearly lows through the past week, but a late week reversal actually left the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) higher on the week. Is this the start of a more significant Dollar reversal?

A sharply better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report helped push the Dollar positive for the first time in the past six weeks. Yet a virtually empty US economic calendar leaves little hope of big moves in the week ahead. And indeed, 1-week Euro/US Dollar volatility expectations finished at record lows following the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Clearly most are betting on/hedging against extremely slow moves ahead, but why didn’t NFPs change that?

The US labor market data was about as strong as anyone could have hoped for, and strong employment growth should force the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy more quickly than expected. Yet there needs to be more for markets to start pricing in Fed rate hikes. The US 2-year Treasury Yield—a great proxy for medium-term interest rate expectations—spiked on the NFPs report only to fall short at the 09/2013 high and likely stick to its long-standing trading range.

Where might we see bigger currency volatility? Follow the interest rates. The British Pound is an obvious candidate as it trades at post-financial crisis highs, and it should be little surprise to note that UK government bond yields trade at fresh multi-year peaks. The Euro should arguably be more sensitive to the fact that the European Central Bank has cut benchmark deposit rates into negative territory. Yet Euro Zone yields were already trading near zero percent even before recent ECB actions. Interest rate expectations remain muted in the US, Euro Zone, and across G10 currencies.

Thus if you can’t beat them, join them. It might be frustrating to trade in such low-volatility market conditions, but our real client data actually shows that most tend to do well in tight ranges.

There’s little sense in trading for big currency swings if market conditions remain as they are, and the fact that the US Dollar remains oversold against key counterparts and that in itself leaves us focused on USD gains in the week and month ahead. Indeed our Senior Strategist sees reason for continued EURUSD losses, and a look at our real forex sentiment data warns that a position extreme could likewise favor a Euro top. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.