News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.79%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.81%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pPMQB3Sgtf
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (JUL) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -10% Previous: -13.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • Norges Bank - total liquidity has been unevenly distributed between banks, leading to considerable uncertainty over supply of NOK. Adds that they will offer fully allotted F-Loans at fixed rates with 1 day maturities
  • London put on national Covid watch list amid recent surge in cases
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.29% Gold: -0.42% Silver: -1.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OTTxCl6GJR
  • Spanish health minister says the government recommends a total lockdown in Madrid
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/37yFAZ530P
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/Fa4sDLIjww
  • 🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (AUG) Actual: -171K Previous: -172.2K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-25
  • $GBP https://t.co/Gl9Hkc0nTr
Dollar Fails to Rally on Great Payrolls Data, Remains a Sell

Dollar Fails to Rally on Great Payrolls Data, Remains a Sell

2014-05-02 22:02:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:
Dollar Fails to Rally on Great Payrolls Data, Remains a Sell

Fundamental Forecast for Dollar:Bearish

A sharply better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report wasn’t enough to keep the Dollar from falling versus major FX counterparts, and the Greenback looks at risk of further declines as key fundamental factors favor weakness.

The fact that the Dollar was unable to capitalize on the strong April NFPs data tells us most of what we need to know: a market that doesn’t rally on bullish data probably isn’t bullish. Traders initially sent the Greenback and US Treasury Yields sharply higher as the data showed the national unemployment rate tumbled as the economy added far more jobs than expected. Yet both the currency and interest rates gave back all of those gains, and indeed the downtrend for the US Dollar remained intact.

A quiet week of economic data ahead suggests that the US Dollar’s slow grind lower may continue. The fact that forex market volatility prices trade near record-lows hurts the safe-haven US currency. If traders don’t fear big currency moves, there’s little reason to hold dollars as interest rates remain near record-lows.

The one potentially significant event on the US economic calendar comes on Wednesday as Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks to Congress on the state of the US economy. It will be important to listen for any shifts in tone following the impressive April labor market data. Of course the recent disappointment in Q1 GDP Growth figures suggests that a more substantive change in policy is relatively unlikely.

Beyond the US calendar, FX traders will keep an eye on upcoming interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, and European Central Bank. Markets predict that none of these central banks will move interest rates in the coming week or even in the coming 12 months. That in itself gives us little reason to expect major currency swings, and much like those central bankers we remain in “wait and see” mode across major pairs.

Until we see a sharp jump in volatility and/or a material shift in interest rate expectations, we see relatively little scope for a Dollar bounce. Our technical and sentiment-based forecasts likewise call for further Greenback weakness. It will likely take a surprising catalyst to break the Greenback out of its slow grind lower. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES