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Markets Week Ahead: Dow, Euro, Dollar, Oil, Bitcoin, RBA Decision, NFPs

Markets Week Ahead: Dow, Euro, Dollar, Oil, Bitcoin, RBA Decision, NFPs

Rich Dvorak, Analyst


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Markets were rather uneventful last week with volatility cooling off as we head into the lull of summer. The ‘sell in May and go away’ anomaly held true for the first couple weeks of the month, but lack of follow-through has since led to a recovery in market sentiment and rebound by risk assets over the last few trading sessions. Perhaps this corresponds with simmering inflation fears and lower bond yields.

Major stock indices ticked higher with the DAX 30, CAC 40, and Stoxx 50 rising to fresh records. The Dow Jones advanced 1% on the week, but lagged the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The ASX 200 shined most bright thanks to its 2.6% weekly gain. Relatively more speculative assets like major cryptocurrencies did not fare as well, however, with Bitcoin and Ethereum whipsawing back toward recent swing lows.

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NZD/USD price action saw an influx of buying pressure as the Kiwi strengthened broadly due to a less-dovish shift in policy guidance by the RBNZ. The US Dollar caught a bid late last week and helped the DXY Index ricochet off year-to-date lows, but the move was quickly faded. Euro bulls struggled to push the bloc currency higher amid increasing expectations for the ECB to prolong its asset purchase programs. The Pound firmed up a bit following somewhat hawkish comments from the BoE.


US Dollar Performance Chart vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, Gold, CNY

Gold price action climbed for the fourth week straight while the most active front-month silver futures contract just notched its highest weekly close since March 2013. Crude oil prices gained ground with the commodity jumping over 4% to trade back above $66.00/bbl. There could be potential for oil volatility to accelerate further next week in light of the scheduled OPEC+ meeting on output. The DailyFX Economic Calendar outlines additional event risk and data releases on deck for the week ahead.

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Traders might want to keep an eye on the Australian Dollar in light of the upcoming RBA decision. EUR/USD could come into focus as well due to high-impact event risk posed by the release of Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payrolls data. Not to mention, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are expected to speak next week. USD/CAD also has potential for heightened volatility too with Canadian jobs data due for release alongside NFPs. What else has potential to drive markets in the week ahead?


Gold Forecast Bright on Weak USD; Silver Eyes Multi-Year High

Gold price action advanced for its fourth-week straight as silver soared to multi-year highs thanks to a stubbornly weak US Dollar. Will gold and silver prices rise further or will Fed hawks stymie upside?

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Alt-Coins - Beware of Weekend Volatility

The 24/7 cryptocurrency market needs to monitored closely over the coming long weekend with volatility levels still high.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Price Outlook Positive, Well Placed For More Gains

EUR/USD remains in an uptrend and is in a good position to reach the 1.23 level and then new highs for the year to date as the Eurozone economy improves and coronavirus cases drop.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: BoE Hawks vs UK Reopening Concerns

GBP/USD on the front foot to close the week. Bulls aim for YTD peak, while EUR/GBP range is maintained.

Stock Market Forecast for the Week Ahead: The Summer Doldrums Approach

Seasonality may work to slow stock market price action as a drawdown in volume and volatility seep into the market. The major indices have already begun to show symptoms of range-bound price action.

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD May Wilt on RBA, Falling Iron Ore Prices

The Australian Dollar may struggle as the RBA further hints at rolling the yield target to the November 2024 bond. AUD/USD remains vulnerable to falling copper and iron ore prices.

Weekly Fundamental US Dollar Forecast: Inflation Fears Linger; May US NFP Due Friday

The ongoing erosion of US real yields, thanks to rising inflation expectations and stagnant US Treasury yields, proved to be a negative influence on US Dollar price action – like it was for much of 2020.

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GBPUSD Price Forecast: Either a New Phase of 15-Month Bull Leg or Reversal

GBPUSD has shifted into neutral and is building pressure just below a technical resistance that holds the keys to the next leg of a major bull trend or the beginning of a reversal. Will the market resolve this impasse in the week ahead?

Nasdaq 100, Hang Seng Index Forecast: "Double Bottom" Signals Bullish Trend Reversal

The Nasdaq 100 index formed a “Double Bottom” chart pattern, which is commonly viewed as a bullish trend-reversal signal. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) aims to breach a key chart resistance.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast: Is the Rally Long in the Tooth?

The Canadian Dollar has been on an absolute tear in 2021, thanks in part to rising energy prices. Yet gains have been harder to come by over the past week-plus.

US Dollar Outlook: DXY Plunge Pauses- USD Bears Test Yearly Support

A Dollar reversal off was halted by Friday’s inflation release as the index straddles yearly open support. The technical levels that matter on the DXY chart into June.

Gold Technical Forecast: Higher Highs to Come if XAU Clears 1900 Level?

Gold may run higher if it clears the psychologically imposing 1900 level, but several other technical considerations are in play for the yellow metal. Where could XAU/USD head next?

Weekly Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: Narrative Shifting, Bears Gaining Control

Thanks to shifting fundamental forces – weaker commodity prices and a relatively less hawkish RBA – Aussie bears more control over price action across a number of AUD-crosses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.