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  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here:
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here:
Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Stock Market Forecast: Neutral


Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

US equities were treated to a Fed meeting last week that might allow them to continue higher in the months to come after the central bank reiterated its accommodative policy path. In the shorter term, however,the impending conclusion of the Fed’s Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) may give rise to volatility as big banks might be forced to increase their capital holdings and/or reduce their exposure to Treasurys. Should they adjust by selling Treasurys, yields might tick higher which could pressure technology stocks further.

Nasdaq 100 to Dow Jones Ratio Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2020 – March 2021)

Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Chart

The reflation trade has been unfolding since early February as evidenced by the continued drawdown in the Nasdaq 100 to Dow Jones ratio. The rotation has seen investors shy away from the market’s mega-cap leaders in favor of smaller, industrial or value-oriented stocks as US Treasury yields rise. If yields continue to rise toward the S&P 500 earnings rate, which stands at around 2.5%, the current rotation trade could gain steam or transition into a broader equity selloff.

Video Explainer – What Rising Treasury Yields Mean for US Equities and Gold

That being said, the longer-term fundamental outlook for equities remains constructive as the Fed revealed upbeat economic projections while simultaneously maintaining its timeline to raise interest rates. Together, the central bank’s findings paint a rosy picture of the US economy and corporate earnings that might propel stock prices higher in the long term.

FTSE 100 Forecast

While the US indices negotiate rising yields and expiring central bank policies, the FTSE 100 will look to more traditional catalysts in upcoming inflation and employment data. The prints are unlikely to completely uproot the index’s longer-term recovery, but they could give rise to shorter-term volatility. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFXon Twitter for updates and analysis.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

--Written by Peter Hanks, Strategist for

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.