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  • The recent surge in the Treasury market has pushed the benchmark 10Y yield back above the S&P 500 dividend yield https://t.co/x28BFkmjNv
  • S&P 500 on the verge of getting separation from March trend-line. Nasdaq 100 below March trend-line, triggering H&S pattern. Get your #equities market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/quhMgBpoiq https://t.co/n0jtTnVNwl
  • Japanese Gov't recommends 2-week extension of Tokyo virus emergency - BBG $JPY
  • While the rise in yields is weighing on risk trends, carry trade didn't seem to take the hit. In fact, the charge in US yields seems to have far outweighed the de-risking from $USDJPY's perspective: https://t.co/KpOpgopOep
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.69% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.81% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.90% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/8Tvotykz9y
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.33% Gold: -0.69% Silver: -2.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/faJTbi16VK
  • AUD/USD now off daily lows, remains much weaker as a result of broad US Dollar strength $AUDUSD https://t.co/OkdKWbepAR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/XXOjh5LmaB
  • Silver price action stalls between Moving Averages. Platinum prices currently confined by Fibonacci Support. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/Nbl8FDmfps https://t.co/VyuZzP8w2q
  • US Markets at the Close $NDX 12464.0 -1.73% $SPX 3768.49 -1.34% $DJI 30924.14 -1.11%
Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, US Dollar, Gold, Treasuries, Central Bankers

Markets Week Ahead: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, US Dollar, Gold, Treasuries, Central Bankers

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist
Equities Forecast
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Global market sentiment recovered this past week, with equities charging higher in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. On Wall Street, the S&P 500, Dow Jones and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 4.65%, 3.89% and 6.01% respectively. The VIX market ‘fear gauge’ receded to its lowest in almost two months.

Despite the risk-on tone, the haven-linked US Dollar managed to hold its ground in some cases. It gained against the Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese Yen, while losing to the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and British Pound. A softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report at the end of the week caused most of the Greenback’s decline as Friday concluded.

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What will be key to watch ahead is the story of longer-term Treasury yields, which have been rising. The 30-year rate closed at its highest since February 20th, 2020. This, combined with a stabilizing Greenback, has been weighing on precious metal prices, such as gold and silver. US fiscal stimulus bets and rising inflation expectations down the road are likely contributing to this.

The week ahead is relatively quiet, with the Lunar New Year taking Chinese exchanges offline starting Thursday, opening the door to lower-than-usual liquidity conditions. The US will release its latest inflation figures on Wednesday, with University of Michigan consumer sentiment due on Friday. AUD/USD may see some volatility around consumer confidence data.

There will be speeches from central bank policymakers to watch out for. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB Chief Christine Lagarde and BoC’s Deputy Governor Timothy Lane are on tap. In addition to weekly EIA inventory data, crude oil prices await the latest monthly market report from OPEC. What else are traders watching in the week ahead?

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Fundamental Forecasts

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: EUR/GBP Bearish Breakdown, More GBP Gains Ahead?

GBP rallies as BoE says no to negative rates , EUR/GBP bearish breakdown.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Bleak as Traders Rush for US Dollars

EUR/USD broke below 1.20 last week for the first time since December 1 last year and as traders pile in to US Dollars the pair looks destined to fall further.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: USD and Yields Turn Higher as Economic Data Improves

Precious metals are struggling to hold their ground as uncertainty hedges are unwound.

Will the S&P 500 Extend Its Record Rally Against Rising Yields and USD?

An improved fundamental picture, positive earnings guidance and stimulus hopes appeared to have rejuvenated stock markets’ rally, but rising longer-dated yields and a stronger USD may cloud the outlook.

US Dollar Forecast: Climbing Inflation Expectations May Underpin USD

The US Dollar may continue to gain ground against its major counterparts in the short term, as a noticeable pickup in inflations fuels bets that the Federal Reserve will taper its bond purchasing scheme.

Oil Price Rally Buoyed by Signs of Stronger Demand and Subdued Supply

The price of oil trades to fresh yearly highs as the decline in crude inventories boosts the outlook for consumption while US output sits at its lowest level since 2018.

Australian Dollar Forecast: S&P 500 Gains Fail to Inspire, Why the Struggle?

The growth-linked Australian Dollar lost some ground despite a rising S&P 500 as the US Dollar received a boost from rising Treasury yields. This dynamic remains important to watch ahead.

Technical Forecasts

US Dollar Outlook: USD Rips - Bear Market Rally or Reversal?

The Dollar surged 0.6% into the February open with the index now up more than 2.6% off the January low. Here are the levels that matter on the DXY technical charts.

Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook: GBP/USD Shackled by the US Dollar, EUR/GBP Hitting Fresh Lows

Sterling continues its gentle move higher across a broad range of currencies, although US dollar strength is limiting GBP/USD gains.

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Flirting with March Trend-line Break

Aussie is sitting on support, but as a new week rolls around – will it hold or fold?

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD

It was a bad week for the Euro, but there may be some positive items yet as EUR/USD is working on a bullish engulfing bar to finish a fairly bearish week.

Canadian Dollar Outlook: AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD Post-Jobs Report Levels to Watch

AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD pushed higher after a worse-than-expected Canadian jobs report sapped Loonie strength. Key levels to watch ahead.

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

Volatility has seen the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 30 bounce wildly between technical levels. Short of a break beneath longstanding resistance, however, the outlook remains constructive.

Gold Price Technical Forecast: Will Bearish Pressures Persist?

Gold price action stumbled -2% lower this past week as precious metals struggle to stay bid. Can gold bulls stage a relief bounce off nearby technical support or will the recent bearish trend persist?

US DOLLAR WEEKLY PERFORMANCE AGAINST CURRENCIES AND GOLD

USD Aggregate Chart

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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