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Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Euro, S&P 500, Oil, China GDP, Global PMIs, Brexit

Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Euro, S&P 500, Oil, China GDP, Global PMIs, Brexit

Rich Dvorak, Analyst


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The Australian Dollar was the worst performing major currency last week. AUD price action weakened sharply in response to increasingly dovish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Reports that China has suspended coal imports from their Australian neighbors likely contributed to the move lower by the pro-risk Aussie against top safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.

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US Dollar turbulence continued with the Greenback getting whipsawed by fiscal stimulus talks and political uncertainty. This theme might linger in the days ahead with investor angst and speculation swirling around potential outcomes for the fast-approaching presidential election. Investor expectations for a comprehensive coronavirus aid package before the November election were down-throttled as President Donald Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi struggle to strike a stimulus deal, which looks due to political gambits.

In turn, the broad-based DXY Index edged higher on balance over the last five trading sessions and now trades flat month-to-date. Meanwhile, anti-fiat gold prices dropped about 1% this past week as the US Dollar strengthened against key FX peers. EUR/USD faced considerable selling pressure with spot prices falling 115-pips, or -1%. The move lower by EUR/USD price action also looks driven partly by deteriorating Eurozone economic prospects. This follows mounting restrictions on business activity aimed at curbing coronavirus second wave risk, which could bring crude oil prices into alignment with trader crosshairs.

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Pound Sterling volatility remains heightened in the midst of back-and-forth Brexit negotiations. Recent Brexit developments have highlighted stark differences between the UK and EU on trade, which could lead to a breakdown in talks and rekindle no-deal Brexit risk as key deadlines grow nearer. These aforementioned macro drivers look likely to persist in the week ahead and continue weighing materially on market sentiment. Notable shifts in trader risk appetite around these key themes could correspond with big swings in the direction of major stock indices like the S&P 500 or DAX.

Furthermore, the DailyFX Economic Calendar details several high-impact data releases and scheduled event risk this coming week. Third-quarter China GDP is slated to cross market wires on Monday, 19 October at 02:00 GMT and looks postured to set the tone for broader sentiment. The GBP, CAD, and NZD could get a jolt from the latest inflation figures due out of the UK, Canada, and New Zealand.

Expected commentary from top central bankers such as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey littered throughout the week will likely be on the radar of traders as well. That said, global PMI reports on tap for release later in the week could steal the limelight and strongarm the direction of markets. What other critical themes and financial market developments are traders watching out for in the week ahead?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Bearish as Second Wave of Covid-19 Hits Europe

For a while now, the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic has been expected to be less in Europe than in the US. Now, though, that may have to be re-assessed.

Gold to Retain Inverse Relationship to USD on Dovish Fed Guidance

The price of gold may continue to exhibit an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as the Federal Reserve retains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

S&P 500 May Eye Higher Levels on Upbeat Earnings, Stimulus Hopes

The S&P 500 index may shrug off a technical correction and aim for higher levels, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and stimulus hopes. Election and growth risks to be watched.

Crude Oil Prices in Jeopardy Ahead of OPEC JMMC Meeting

Crude oil prices are at risk of breaking lower ahead of the OPEC JMMC meeting on October 19 after the IEA revised down its global demand estimates.

Mexican Peso Fundamental Forecast: Dependent on Presidential Election Outcome

USD/MXN tries to consolidate a bearish breakthrough as uncertainty grows around the US presidential election.

US Dollar (DXY) Forecast - Picking Up a Bid as Stimulus Deal Hopes Fade

The US dollar continues to nudge higher as markets remain on edge ahead of the US election, while US stimulus talks seem to be going nowhere.

GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Eyes Brexit Latest

GBP caught in the crossfires of back and forth Brexit headlines. Choppy trading conditions to persist.

Australian Dollar Eyes China Q3 GDP Data, Earnings Rising Covid-19 Cases

The Australian Dollar will be closely watching Chinese Q3 GDP data amid a cascade of earnings data with growing concern about the impact of growing Covid-19 cases on the global economy.


Technical Forecasts:

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Euro Enters Week with Uncertainty

The Euro is leaning lower at the moment, but that could change; week ahead may help decide a direction or just leave us with more sideways chop – what to watch.

British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

The British Pound threatened a downside break on Friday but quickly pulled back. What might be in store for next week as the UK moves closer to a no-deal Brexit?

Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, DAX 30 Forecasts for the Week Ahead

A week of back and forth trading saw the Nasdaq 100 close slightly in the green, notching a third consecutive week of gains. With earnings season in full swing, here are the technical levels to watch.

Gold Price Forecast: Precious Metals Seeking Bullish Catalyst

Gold price action dropped by 1% this past week as precious metals struggled to maintain altitude in the absence of a needed bullish catalyst. Will the broader trend prevail or is more pain ahead for gold?


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.